The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage is in full swing. As of June 17, top contenders like Argentina, France, and Norway have made their debut, delivering a series of thrilling matches for fans around the globe. As the tournament progresses, discussions about which team will ultimately lift the coveted trophy are heating up. Beyond traditional betting odds, prediction markets are emerging as a key indicator of championship favorites—global traders are putting real money on the line to price each team’s chances of winning. With the World Cup in full battle mode, which team do prediction markets favor to win it all?
Latest Match Updates: Favorites Take the Stage, Messi and Mbappé Shine
On June 17, several top contenders completed their group stage openers.
In Group J, defending champions Argentina defeated Algeria 3-0. Messi scored a hat-trick, bringing his personal World Cup goal tally to 16 and tying Klose’s all-time record. This victory not only solidified Argentina’s position for advancing from the group but also sent a clear message: Messi’s Pampas Eagles remain a formidable force in the title race.
In Group I, France beat Senegal 3-1. Mbappé netted twice, raising his World Cup goal count to 14, making him France’s all-time top scorer and tying Gerd Müller for third in World Cup history. Norway, in the same group, routed Iraq 4-1, with Haaland scoring twice in his World Cup debut. Thanks to goal difference, Norway currently leads Group I ahead of France.
Spain played Cape Verde to a surprising 0-0 draw in their opener on June 16—the biggest upset so far. Despite dominating possession at 74%, the Spanish side failed to convert their advantage into goals.
Championship Odds: Spain Cools Off but Holds the Top Spot, France Surges Ahead
After being held to a draw, Spain’s championship odds were adjusted downward. According to relevant agencies, Spain’s odds rose from previous lows to 9/2, tying France at the top of the odds leaderboard.
However, following France’s 3-1 victory over Senegal on June 17, the odds shifted again. France’s emphatic opening win propelled them past Spain to first place in some agencies’ odds rankings. Current mainstream odds show France at approximately +400, Spain at +450, England at +650, and Argentina at +850.
England, Portugal, Brazil, and Argentina form the second tier, with odds at 7/1, 15/2, 10/1, and 10/1, respectively. Germany follows at 14/1, the Netherlands at 16/1, and Norway—boosted by Haaland’s impressive debut—at 28/1.
Prediction Markets: $2 Billion in Trading Volume, Spain and France Neck-and-Neck
Compared to traditional betting odds, prediction markets offer another perspective on championship favorites. Polymarket and Kalshi are the world’s largest prediction market platforms, with World Cup champion contracts surpassing $2 billion in trading volume.
As of June 17, Polymarket data shows Spain’s implied championship probability at around 16.5%, France at 16%. England and Portugal are each at about 11%, defending champions Argentina at 9%, and Brazil at 8%.
Kalshi’s figures present a slightly different picture: France leads with a 17.8% probability, overtaking Spain (14.7%), with Portugal at 11.6% in third and England at 10.3% in fourth.
Gate, as the world’s first centralized exchange (CEX) to integrate Polymarket services, saw its World Cup trading volume exceed $10 million in 24 hours, topping the global prediction market leaderboard for single-day volume. Gate’s prediction market data shows France and Spain jointly leading in championship probability.
Goldman Sachs Model: Spain Leads with 24.7% Probability, Top Three Share Nearly 60%
Investment bank Goldman Sachs used Monte Carlo simulations and the Elo rating system to run 50,000 simulations for the 2026 World Cup. The latest model shows Spain with a 24.7% probability of winning, topping the list; France is second at 17.4%; defending champions Argentina rank third at 15.0%.
In other words, the Goldman Sachs model suggests there’s nearly a 60% chance the trophy will go to one of Spain, France, or Argentina. For reaching the final, Spain has a 36.4% probability, France 27.4%, and Argentina 27.6%, clearly forming the top tier.
Brazil (7.9%), England (5.3%), Portugal (5.2%), Germany (5.1%), and the Netherlands (4.9%) round out positions four through eight.
Comparing Predictions: Spain and France Are Consensus Favorites, Argentina Close Behind
Aggregating data from multiple sources, Spain and France are the top picks in nearly all models and markets:
| Prediction Source | Top Favorite | Second Favorite | Third Favorite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Model | Spain (24.7%) | France (17.4%) | Argentina (15.0%) |
| Polymarket | Spain (16.5%) | France (16%) | England (11%) |
| Kalshi | France (17.8%) | Spain (14.7%) | Portugal (11.6%) |
| Opta Supercomputer | Spain (16.1%) | France (13%) | England (11.2%) |
From the comparison above, Spain and France consistently rank in the top two across nearly all prediction systems, making them the universally acknowledged favorites. Argentina, England, and Portugal alternate between third and fifth place in different models.
Conclusion
With the World Cup in full swing, which team do prediction markets favor to win it all? Based on the latest odds, prediction market data, and professional models, the following conclusions can be drawn:
First, Spain and France are the two core favorites. Whether it’s traditional betting odds, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, or quantitative models from Goldman Sachs, Spain and France firmly hold the top two spots. Spain is highly regarded for its powerful midfield and overall strength; France boasts a deep squad led by Mbappé, who is in excellent form after scoring twice in the opener.
Second, Argentina should not be overlooked. The defending champions, led by Messi, defeated Algeria 3-0, with Messi’s hat-trick tying the World Cup scoring record. Goldman Sachs gives Argentina a 15.0% chance of winning, and Kalshi ranks them as the fifth favorite.
Third, prediction markets are becoming a vital tool for tracking tournament trends. The total trading volume in World Cup champion markets has surpassed $2 billion, and global prediction market monthly volume jumped from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026. Gate, as the world’s first CEX to integrate Polymarket, offers users a convenient gateway to participate in World Cup prediction markets.
As the group stage progresses, each team’s championship probability will continue to adjust dynamically. No matter which team ultimately lifts the trophy, prediction markets are set to play an unprecedented role in this World Cup.
