On June 17, US local time, SpaceX (SPCX) experienced its first decline since going public. After opening higher, the stock quickly plunged, dropping more than 7% intraday and hitting a low near $189.6, falling below the key $200 mark. Although the price briefly surged over 5% early in the session, the day’s trading was marked by intense volatility, with gains followed by sharp losses.
By the close, SpaceX settled at $192.2, down about 4.8% from the previous trading day. While this price remains roughly 42% above its IPO price of $135, it has fallen more than 14% from its intraday all-time high of $225.64. The company’s total market capitalization dropped to approximately $2.5 trillion, slipping behind Amazon and returning to sixth place globally by market cap.
First Pullback After a Three-Day Surge: Profit-Taking Drives Short-Term Volatility
SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq on June 12 at $135 per share, raising about $75 billion—the largest IPO in US stock market history. On its first trading day, the stock closed up 19.22% at $160.95. The second day saw another 19.6% rise, ending at $192.5. On the third day, shares surged intraday to $225.64 before closing at $201.8.
In just three trading days, SpaceX’s cumulative gains approached 50%, with market cap briefly exceeding $2.66 trillion, surpassing Amazon and Microsoft to enter the world’s top five listed companies. This rapid ascent generated substantial paper profits for early investors and IPO subscribers. The fourth-day pullback largely reflects normal technical adjustment driven by profit-taking.
However, attributing this decline solely to short-term profit-taking may overlook deeper structural divisions within the market.
The Giant in the Red: A Stark Disconnect Between Valuation and Fundamentals
SpaceX’s valuation has expanded far beyond what its financial fundamentals can support. Financial reports show a net loss of $4.9 billion for the full year 2025 and a net loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026. While Starlink contributed about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, the company as a whole remains deeply unprofitable.
At a $2.5 trillion market cap, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio is roughly 141 times (based on 2025 revenue), and nearly 78 times (based on projected 2026 revenue). This valuation is more than three times that of Broadcom and 26 times that of Amazon. By comparison, Amazon and Microsoft support market caps above $2 trillion with actual annual profits in the hundreds of billions.
Investment research firm Morningstar lowered its weighted average fair value estimate for SpaceX to $62 per share after the IPO. At current prices, that’s about a 70% premium over fair value. Using a discounted cash flow model, Morningstar estimates SpaceX’s total valuation at $780 billion, with space launch and Starlink businesses accounting for $611 billion, and AI business valued at about $170 billion. CFRA also issued a sell rating.
Low Float and High Retail Enthusiasm: Amplifying Short-Term Price Swings
The price discovery process for SpaceX in its early days was heavily influenced by its unique equity structure. Only about 4.2% of the company’s total shares are actually available for trading. This extremely low float means even small buy or sell orders can disproportionately impact the stock price—fueling both the initial surge and the recent rapid decline.
Retail investors bought a net $369.8 million worth of SpaceX shares in the first three days after listing, four times their typical investment in Nvidia or Nasdaq ETFs. However, when prices began to fall, the low float also amplified the downward movement.
Signals from the options market are also noteworthy. On June 17, SpaceX options trading volume soared above 1.7 million contracts, with the proportion of put options climbing quietly to 44%. This suggests that institutional investors and hedge funds are systematically hedging against downside risk, in sharp contrast to retail investors’ buying frenzy.
"Musk Premium" and the Ripple Effect on Crypto Assets
SpaceX’s IPO is not just a capital markets event—it has also sent ripples through Musk-related crypto assets. Musk has long been active in the crypto space, personally holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin. SpaceX and Tesla also maintain significant Bitcoin reserves.
Following the SpaceX IPO announcement, Dogecoin surged 7.6% on June 12, reaching $0.091. Musk’s personal net worth surpassed $1 trillion after the IPO, making him the first trillionaire in history. However, DOGE’s rebound didn’t last—currently trading between $0.080 and $0.085, still down about 88% from its all-time high. The narrative around SpaceX’s DOGE-1 lunar mission accepting Dogecoin payments also failed to significantly boost the price.
This pattern of "event-driven rallies failing to sustain" reflects a deeper market reality: as Musk’s wealth reaches the trillion-dollar level, his actions have diminishing marginal impact on crypto asset prices. The market’s pricing logic for "Musk concepts" is shifting from narrative-driven speculation to fundamental analysis.
From Stock Pullback to Valuation System Reassessment: Industry Insights from the SpaceX Phenomenon
SpaceX’s drop below $200 shouldn’t be viewed simply as a technical pullback for one stock. As the largest IPO in history, SpaceX’s listing is reshaping the global capital market’s valuation benchmarks.
On its first day, SpaceX’s market cap broke $2 trillion, surpassing TSMC to become the world’s sixth-largest company. On the second day, it crossed $2.5 trillion. On the third day, it briefly overtook Microsoft. This expansion speed is unprecedented in capital market history. Yet, as the stock pulls back, the market must reconsider a core question: Should a company losing nearly $10 billion a year and not yet profitable as a whole command a $2.5 trillion market cap?
Industry insiders worry that SpaceX’s massive IPO may create a "siphoning" effect, exacerbating imbalances in capital allocation. Its excessive valuation and ongoing "burn rate" in AI business, with profitability nowhere in sight, could introduce uncertainty to the tech sector and the broader market.
For the crypto market, the SpaceX phenomenon offers a valuable reference point. When traditional capital markets are willing to value a loss-making company at $2.5 trillion, it signals an extreme global risk appetite. If this risk preference reverses, it could spill over into crypto assets through capital flows and market sentiment.
Summary
SpaceX’s drop below $200 marks the official entry of the "largest IPO in history" into the second stage of price discovery—shifting from pure IPO-driven gains to a battle between fundamentals and valuation. The current $2.5 trillion market cap corresponds to nearly 100 times price-to-sales and ongoing massive losses. The gap between valuation and fundamentals cannot be bridged by Musk’s personal influence alone.
In the coming quarters, SpaceX must prove whether Starlink’s profitability can continue to improve, whether Starship can be commercially operational as planned, and whether its AI business can deliver tangible returns. Meanwhile, as insider lock-up periods expire, the market will face potential selling pressure.
For crypto industry observers, SpaceX’s valuation debate provides an important benchmark: when one of the world’s largest risk assets begins to face fundamental scrutiny, the entire risk asset pricing system may be in for a recalibration.
FAQ
Q: What’s the main reason SpaceX fell below $200 this time?
A: The immediate cause was profit-taking by early investors after a nearly 50% surge over three consecutive trading days. More fundamentally, the market is beginning to question the disconnect between its $2.5 trillion valuation and ongoing massive losses.
Q: How has SpaceX’s market cap ranking changed?
A: After the decline, its market cap is about $2.5 trillion, falling behind Amazon and returning to sixth place globally. On the third trading day, it briefly surpassed Microsoft to enter the global top five.
Q: How does SpaceX’s financial situation support its current valuation?
A: SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025 and $4.28 billion in Q1 2026. At a $2.5 trillion market cap, its price-to-sales ratio is about 141 times (based on 2025 revenue), far higher than profitable tech giants like Amazon. Fair value estimates from Morningstar and others are much lower than the current price.
Q: What impact does SpaceX’s stock volatility have on the crypto market?
A: SpaceX’s IPO briefly boosted Dogecoin and other Musk-linked crypto assets, but gains didn’t last. The valuation debate around SpaceX reflects shifts in global risk appetite, which could indirectly affect crypto asset pricing through capital flows and market sentiment.
Q: What pressures might SpaceX’s stock face going forward?
A: The expiration of insider lock-up periods could bring selling pressure. The progress of Starship’s commercial operations, Starlink’s profitability, and AI business returns will be under ongoing scrutiny. The rising proportion of institutional put options also signals professional investors’ expectations for downside risk.
