The 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico will be the first football tournament in history jointly hosted by three countries. The participating teams will expand from 32 to 48, with 104 matches spread across 16 cities, and the tournament will last for 39 days. As the June 12 Beijing-time opening match approaches, discussions about who will win the trophy have reached a peak. Unlike traditional tournament analysis firms, blockchain-based prediction markets are offering a brand-new lens to observe the event—participants provide real-time, dynamic pricing information on the core question of “who can ultimately lift the Jules Rimet Cup” through trading activity backed by real money.
Latest data shows that in Gate’s prediction market, the cumulative trading volume for World Cup championship-related topics has already exceeded $1.75 billion. Spain and France are tied for first place with a 16% probability of winning, the UK is third with 11%, Portugal is fourth with 10%, Argentina and Brazil are tied for fifth with 8%, and Germany is seventh with 5%. Behind these figures is a collective judgment from hundreds of millions of dollars worldwide on the 39-day competitive results of all 48 teams.
How expanding to 48 teams reshapes the path to the title
For the first time in the 2026 World Cup, the tournament will expand to 48 participating teams, jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The competition uses a format with 12 groups of 4 teams each. The top two from each group and the 8 best group-third teams advance to the 32-team knockout stage. The champion is then determined through a single-elimination bracket. The final is scheduled for July 19 local time at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, USA.
This change in format has had a far-reaching impact on the title race landscape. The biggest factors are the combined increase in both schedule length and match intensity. A champion team now needs to go through 8 high-intensity matches to lift the trophy, whereas under the previous 32-team format it required only 7 matches. This makes squad depth and fitness reserves key variables for measuring a team’s title potential.
It’s also worth noting the relaxation of the advancement threshold. The rule allowing 8 best group-third teams to qualify increases the competitive density in the knockout stage, but it also means热门 teams gain a wider margin for error in the group stage— even if their group-stage performance doesn’t meet expectations, they can still reach the knockout stage as group third. This mechanism cuts both ways for热门 teams: on one hand, it reduces the probability of being eliminated by an upset in the group stage; on the other hand, it significantly increases the “dark horse” variable in the knockout stage, indirectly boosting uncertainty along the title path.
Against a backdrop of a major rise in schedule intensity, the advantage of squad depth held by traditional football powers is further amplified. Teams that can maintain rotation capability and tactical adjustment space during 8 high-intensity clashes will occupy a structurally favorable position in this edition of the “Super World Cup.” This also helps explain why a few European top teams with the deepest reserves are far ahead on the championship probability leaderboard.
What dimensions underpin Spain’s and France’s advantage
Spain and France, tied at 16% winning probability, share the top tier in Gate’s prediction market, but each has different supporting logic.
Spain’s edge is built on the maturity of its system and the peak condition of its key players. As the 2024 European Championship winner, Spain’s possession-based system has been tested extensively in real competition over a long period. In midfield, Rodri, the Ballon d’Or winner in 2024, serves as the pivotal figure on both offense and defense, supported by midfield combinations such as Pedri and Fabián Ruiz, who bring top-level tournament experience. Together, these form Spain’s most controlling midfield configuration in this tournament. Up front, 18-year-old Lamine Yamal has become Spain’s most destructive attacking weapon with his ability to break through and create chances.
From a data perspective, multiple analysis organizations’ views on Spain go even beyond the current pricing implied by the prediction market. Opta, a sports data company, shows through more than ten thousand simulations that Spain’s probability of winning the tournament is about 16.08%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs—using nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978 and applying complex quantitative models for Monte Carlo simulation—has given an even more aggressive estimate: Spain sits at 26% firmly in first place, which is 7 percentage points higher than France’s 19%. In its research report, Goldman Sachs points out that its predictive model assigns Spain the highest rating, and that the team is in good competitive form before the tournament starts, with shot quality leading.
France’s advantage, meanwhile, centers on squad depth and attacking firepower. France has reached the final four times in the past seven World Cups; if it reaches the final again this time, it would become the third team to reach the final in three consecutive editions, following Brazil (1994, 1998, 2002) and West Germany (1982, 1986, 1990). The nine players in France’s projected attacking line have a combined estimated market value exceeding €800 million. Among them, the combined valuation of Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, and Doue is about €530 million, already surpassing the total valuation of Brazil’s entire attacking line. Team captain Mbappé has scored 12 goals in the past two World Cups, only 4 goals behind the World Cup historical record held by Miroslav Klose (16 goals).
France’s core challenge is that the team is going through the retirement wave of its golden generation mainstays. Legendary players such as Lloris, Varane, Giroud, and Griezmann have all left the national team, and the team’s average age has fallen significantly. Coach Deschamps needs to lead a young group that lacks major international tournament final experience to deal with the high-pressure environment of the World Cup knockout stage. Even if France still ranks among the best in raw talent, the experience gap is an unavoidable variable.
Can England and Portugal break the fate of big-tournament struggles
England and Portugal are placed third and fourth on the championship probability list with winning probabilities of 11% and 10%, respectively. Both teams face similar challenges—an imbalance between squad strength and historical performance.
England has finished as runners-up in consecutive European Championships over the past two editions and has repeatedly failed to convert a strong “paper” lineup into championship glory. Coach Tuchel’s team qualified for the World Cup with a perfect record and zero goals conceded, showing outstanding defensive stability. The pairing of Kane in attack and Bellingham in midfield forms the core attacking framework for England; combined with Rice’s interception ability in midfield, England’s configuration across the attacking and midfield zones can match any top powerhouse.
However, England’s group situation in this tournament is not easy. In Group L, their group opponents include Croatia, Ghana, and Panama. Croatia may be placed in the second pot, but its strength is enough to match first-pot teams, leading multiple foreign media to view this group as one of the most fiercely contested in the tournament.
For Portugal, 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo is set to play in his sixth World Cup, becoming the first player to participate in six editions. Meanwhile, Messi has also reached the same participation record in Argentina’s squad. Portugal’s midfield is led by Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes and Manchester City captain Bernardo Silva, with additional support from Vitinha and João Neves, key midfield starters from last season’s UEFA Champions League-winning Paris Saint-Germain, combining both organizational ability and defensive toughness.
In Opta simulations, Portugal’s probability of winning is about 10.4%, while in Goldman Sachs’ prediction system it does not make the top five, reflecting a divergence in evaluations of Portugal’s true strength under different methodologies. In Portugal’s potential path, if it can strike a balance between midfield control and finishing efficiency in the final third, it has enough strength to challenge the semifinals and even reach the final.
The South American challenge: Argentina and Brazil
Argentina and Brazil are tied for fifth place on the championship probability leaderboard with winning probabilities of 8% each. The shared challenge for these two South American giants is that, within overall evaluation frameworks, they are no longer unequivocally in the top first tier.
As the defending champions, Argentina retains the core squad that won the 2022 Qatar World Cup. Messi, at age 38, is making his sixth appearance, with 17 members from the squad that won the last edition still in the team. Stability is Argentina’s biggest advantage. However, the issue of squad aging is also prominent. Opta simulations show Argentina’s probability of winning is about 11.2%, while Goldman Sachs’ latest forecast has lowered Argentina’s title probability to 14%.
Argentina’s starting lineup and rotation depth have suffered some wear compared with four years ago, and several key players face uncertainties regarding competitive form and health. Still, Argentina’s experience advantage accumulated in the knockout stage remains a variable that can’t be ignored. In World Cup history, the defending champion’s route to advancement often faces more structural obstacles than a newly crowned champion. Whether Argentina can break this pattern in this tournament will depend on whether squad rotation can maintain competitiveness across a high-intensity schedule.
Brazil’s situation is even more complicated. Neymar, at age 34, is embarking on his fourth World Cup. Players such as Vinícius Jr. and Raphinha form the core of the attack. But in the back line, Thiago Silva, aged 41, is left out. Players like Militão and Estêvão miss time due to injuries, leaving Brazil with clear structural weaknesses in defense.
In Opta simulations, Brazil’s probability of winning is only 7%, and in Goldman Sachs’ prediction system it is also 8%. This stands out sharply against Brazil’s traditional status as a five-time World Cup champion. In recent years, Brazil has lacked dominant “suppression” performances against Europe’s top strong teams in international competitions, and this trend is clearly reflected in the data analysis dimension.
Germany and the positioning of other potential competitors
Germany sits seventh on this leaderboard with a 5% winning probability. In Goldman Sachs’ prediction framework, Germany falls into the same probability range as the Netherlands and Portugal and is categorized into the third tier.
Opta simulations show Germany’s probability of winning at about 6.6%. With 40-year-old Neuer returning to the national team after a two-year absence, paired with attacking talents from the new generation such as Musiala and Wirtz, Germany is in a crucial stage of transition between old and new. But overall, Germany lacks a single absolute top superstar leading its ranks across all three lines, which limits its ceiling when facing strong teams in the knockout stage.
Beyond the championship probability leaderboard, multiple teams have potential to spring surprises. Some analysis organizations place the Netherlands and Norway in the tier of “teams that can challenge championship-level strength.” The Netherlands are balanced in both attack and defense, while Norway, powered by stars such as Haaland and Ødegaard, produced some of Europe’s most destructive attacking data during the qualification stage. Japan (championship probability about 1.4%), Morocco (continuing the momentum of its 2022 fourth-place run), as well as Senegal and Ecuador, all have strengths that can’t be underestimated, and they could play “dark horse” roles in the knockout stage.
How market capital prices probabilities and uncertainty
The pricing mechanism of prediction markets differs fundamentally from the “dealer sets odds” approach used by traditional gambling companies. Under blockchain-based event contracts, participants can buy and sell shares on different outcomes. The market price directly reflects the consensus probability formed after the money-versus-money battle. This means the data itself is driven in real time by participants’ actual funds, rather than by fixed odds set by a single dealer.
As of early June, the single prediction event “2026 World Cup Champion” on the Polymarket platform has already surpassed $1.75 billion in cumulative trading volume, making it the largest single event by size among sports prediction markets. In the broader prediction market ecosystem, as of early 2026, theoretical total trading volume in the industry has exceeded $12.75 billion. With the first half of 2026 not yet finished, the total trading volume across the entire prediction market industry has already exceeded $58 billion—more than twice last year’s full-year figure.
In terms of capital scale, the World Cup champion prediction market has already achieved influence comparable to traditional sports betting markets. It’s important to emphasize, however, that prediction market trading prices will swing sharply after the tournament begins. The high trading volume at the start does not necessarily represent final prediction accuracy—it reflects how intensely the market is focusing on the topic and how enthusiastic participants are about participating. As all 104 matches are played one by one, the contract pricing for who wins the championship will continue to fluctuate with teams’ actual performance. This dynamic price discovery process is precisely the core value of prediction markets.
It should be noted that the current probability distribution only represents pre-tournament capital consensus. The World Cup is among the sports events with the highest global uncertainty, and any stage—from group stage to final—can experience disruptive changes. The true value of prediction markets lies in their ability to reflect shifts in market sentiment in real time and to aggregate information scattered across the minds of large-scale participants into probability data that can be observed and traded.
FAQ
Q: How is Gate’s probability of winning calculated?
Gate-integrated prediction markets use a blockchain-based event contract mechanism. Participants buy and sell shares on different outcomes, and the trading price directly reflects the collective judgment of the market regarding the probability of the event occurring. These probabilities are not set by any organization; they are formed by real-money competition among all participants and priced in real time. Gate provides users with an entry to directly participate in such prediction trading. Users can trade using USDT from their exchange accounts, or conduct on-chain prediction trades via Web3 wallets on the Polygon network.
Q: Will the current championship probability data change as the competition progresses?
Yes. Prediction market pricing is dynamic— as the 104 World Cup matches are played one by one, teams’ actual performances will directly influence participants’ judgments. Championship probability data may change significantly after each match day, and this real-time feature is a core expression of prediction market price discovery efficiency. Gate also simultaneously launched a themed campaign called “Green Field Prophet, World Cup Betting Carnival,” covering prediction gameplay across all 104 matches, offering a total prize pool of more than 500,000 USDT and limited physical rewards.
Q: How do Gate users participate in World Cup champion prediction trades?
Users can enter the prediction market page directly through the Gate App and use USDT from their exchange accounts to participate in event prediction trades; they can also conduct on-chain prediction trades via Web3 wallets on the Polygon network. The platform also integrates a smart monitoring feature that can automatically track strategy changes and position movements of core users such as “smart money” and “whales” for participants’ reference.
Q: Besides World Cup champion, what other popular topics does Gate’s prediction market offer?
As of May 2026, open interest in the prediction market segment has risen to a historic high of $1.3 billion. Popular topics include sports event predictions such as the NBA Finals; price direction predictions for mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH; macroeconomic event predictions such as Federal Reserve policies and inflation data; and market contracts involving innovations such as tech giant IPOs and AI model releases. Coverage has already gone beyond the traditional boundaries of sports events.
