BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a “Reality Test” blog post on June 9, confirming that the Maelstrom Fund has fully exited HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC, while continuing to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum. He also said he will set up long positions in energy stocks that are listed in the United States and short positions in AI stocks. Hayes warned in the piece that an AI bubble will hit the crypto market.
Hayes’s Three AI Bubble Triggers: Confirmed Argument Points
Based on the publicly available content of Hayes’s “Reality Test” blog post, the three triggers he put forward are as follows:
Energy costs: Hayes believes the conflict between the United States and Iran will drive oil prices higher, thereby raising energy costs and hurting AI companies’ profit margins. If the number of token usage declines due to lower profits, the market will question the sustainability of data center capital expenditures.
Three major AI IPOs: Hayes noted that the SpaceX IPO is priced at about 100x of sales, and only issues about 4-5% of shares (low float, high fully diluted valuation). The number of shares is expected to increase by about five times by early September (after the lock-up period expires). Anthropic and OpenAI may also list in September. Together, their combined valuations would exceed the total of all network-company IPOs. Hayes believes the market cannot absorb such a massive supply.
Trump’s political stance: Hayes believes that if oil prices keep rising and anger swing voters, Trump, to win the November election, may take confrontational rhetoric on AI regulation and tax issues. The market may not treat it as election strategy, but as a genuine policy signal—leading to panic selling.
Maelstrom Portfolio Adjustments
Based on Hayes’s public statements, Maelstrom’s confirmed actions are as follows: fully exited HYPE, NEAR, WLD (election-year and AI bubble logic); fully exited ZEC (Orchard pool verification vulnerability); continued to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum (Hayes calls Ethereum “dead but still usable”); established long positions in US-listed energy producers’ stocks; shorted AI-related stocks; used derivatives to carry out tactical crypto short trades.
Hayes said he holds Bitcoin because he believes that after the AI bubble bursts, it will trigger a financial crisis and prompt central banks to release large-scale liquidity.
FAQ
Why does Hayes think AI sucked up all the newly added dollars, preventing Bitcoin from rising?
According to Hayes’s analysis, since November 2022, AI capital expenditures have accumulated and issued about $1.5 trillion in debt, while in the same period the incremental US M2 money supply also rose by about $1.5 trillion. Hayes believes that the demand for dollars created by AI industry borrowing fully consumed the incremental dollar liquidity during the same period, leaving no marginal dollars for Bitcoin to absorb. This, he says, is why Bitcoin failed to rise correspondingly during the liquidity expansion.
What is Hayes’s specific assessment of the SpaceX IPO?
According to Hayes’s analysis, the SpaceX IPO is priced at a valuation of about 100x sales and initially issues only about 4-5% of the float. Hayes compares it to a token issuance structure in the crypto market—“low float, high fully diluted valuation”—and said the number of shares will increase by about five times before early September. He believes market expectations are too high to be sustained, and if the IPO fails to meet expectations, investors will treat it as a signal that the market has topped.
Is Hayes’s “Reality Test” argument market analysis or confirmed facts?
“Reality Test” is a market-opinion article that Hayes published in his own name. The parts discussing the burst of the AI bubble, a shift in Trump’s policies, and Bitcoin’s price action are Hayes’s personal analysis and judgment, not confirmed market facts. The confirmed-fact portions include: Maelstrom has fully exited HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC; continues to hold BTC and ETH; and has established long positions in energy stocks and short positions in AI stocks.
