Scotiabank Expects U.S. May CPI to Cool but Remain Elevated; Core CPI Forecast at 0.23% MoM, 2.8% YoY

According to Scotiabank, the U.S. May CPI report released on June 9 is expected to confirm cooling inflation while remaining persistently high. The bank forecasts May core CPI at 0.23% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, with headline CPI at 0.4% MoM and 4.2% YoY.

Scotiabank also cautioned that ongoing oil price and tariff impacts may push core inflation to around 3.0% year-over-year in June, with upside risk if airline fuel costs translate into higher ticket prices. The bank expects core inflation to show limited decline for the remainder of 2026.