#美股2026展望 A huge capital outflow suddenly appeared on Polymarket—bets on the Fed lowering interest rates in December are being crazily dumped.

The numbers are straightforward: now only 30% of people believe there will be a rate cut, while nearly 70% of funds are betting on maintaining the status quo. Even more exaggerated is that the total scale of this market has surged to 120 million dollars. This is no longer a prediction game, but a market consensus backed by real cash.

Three signals are worth noting. Wall Street has recently become unusually sensitive to inflation data, the performance of the employment report has been stronger than market expectations, and most importantly—large funds' position adjustments never lie. These institutional traders often sense changes in direction earlier than any research report.

What about the retail investors?

First, let's talk about short-term operations: stay away from those assets that are highly sensitive to interest rates, especially DeFi protocols with high leverage. Now is not the time to bet on volatility, but rather to look for certain returns. Those tokenized products in the RWA track that are linked to government bond yields can be worth paying attention to.

Next, keep some dry food. At least maintain a 30% cash position and wait for expectations to settle completely before taking action. When the expectation of interest rate cuts cools down, there is often a brief price correction window for Bitcoin in history. This is not a disaster; rather, it is an opportunity for reshuffling chips.

Remember this: when the market is in panic, either you get harvested, or you are ready to harvest others. Be patient and strike fast, accurately, and ruthlessly.