Recent market sentiment has shifted extremely quickly. After experiencing a one-sided rally in the first quarter of 2026, gold prices have deepened a correction, consolidating near the $4,500 level. The attempt to break the April high of $4,830 has been declared a failure.

Currently, the core logic of the market is undergoing a switch: the financial attributes that supported the previous rally (interest rate environment) and the safe-haven attributes (geopolitical conflicts) are both entering headwinds one after another. This is the direct reason why a trend-based rally is difficult to form at present.
Macroeconomic suppression has become the main bearish factor. The market has completely ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December continuing to rise. The US dollar index has stabilized at a near six-week high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has broken through 4.5%. The opportunity cost of holding gold continues to rise, leading to a continuous withdrawal of safe-haven buying.
The marginal decline in safe-haven demand is also a key variable. Although the Middle East situation has not fully calmed, the optimistic signals from the final negotiations between the US and Iran have partially weakened the geopolitical buying momentum for gold.
Long-term support remains: global central banks continue to buy gold. In the first quarter, global central banks net purchased over 244 tons of gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months. Central banks around the world regard gold as a core asset in their de-dollarization strategies, providing a solid bottom support for gold prices.
Market signals are mixed. The daily short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, indicating that each rebound faces selling pressure from above. However, the relative strength index (RSI) is losing momentum, suggesting the market is not in a one-sided panic decline. Technically, the key support level is near $4,452, and the short-term rebound resistance is at $4,590. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate weakly this week.
Overall, gold is still in the process of searching for a new balance through a bottoming process in the short term. The focus is on preventing further declines in the short term, while in the medium term, attention is on whether global central bank gold purchases can reassert dominance in pricing after digesting the rate cut bearish factors.