😱💥💢 Elon Musk's Biggest Gamble

A striking analysis published by JR Research examines the SpaceX $SPCX initial public offering (IPO), expected to take place on June 12, 2026, and poised to be the largest in modern financial history. Aiming for an astronomical valuation of between $1.75 and $2 trillion, the company poses a single question to the market: Is this a space company, or an AI giant whose boundaries extend to the universe? Here are the leaks from the S-1 IPO filing and the key points highlighted in the analysis:

85% Voting Power: The "One-Man" Regime Returns
Elon Musk, having learned from the 2010 Tesla (TSLA) IPO (with its "one share = one vote" rule), is playing it safe this time. Thanks to the overwhelming weight of Class B shares, Musk will have 85% voting control over SpaceX. In other words, becoming a shareholder in SpaceX means unconditionally submitting to all of Musk's decisions and whims. "Key-person" risk is at its peak.

Current Math: Starlink Funds, AI Fuels
The company's current financial engine is Starlink, which caters to areas inaccessible to cumbersome grids on Earth.

Starlink Cash Machine: Reaching 10.3 million subscribers by Q1 2026, Starlink generated $4.4 billion in operating profit from $11 billion in revenue in 2025. Total revenue in Q1 2026 was $4.7 billion (of which $3.26 billion was Starlink alone).

Frightening CapEx Bifurcation: SpaceX made a staggering $10 billion in capital expenditures (CapEx) in Q1 2026 alone, with $7.7 billion going directly to AI infrastructure!

XAI Statistics: XAI, a subsidiary of the company, generated only $820 million in revenue in Q1 (17% of total revenue), while burning through a staggering $2.5 billion in cash. In other words, all of Starlink's profits are being spent to feed a hungry AI monster.

Science Fiction Layer: "Orbital Data Centers" and $28.5 Trillion TAM
Just as Tesla raced towards $2 trillion despite market expert Professor Aswath Damodaran's "exorbitantly expensive" warnings in April, SpaceX is selling future "options." The company has estimated its Total Addressable Market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion! Of that, $22.7 trillion is enterprise AI applications.

Data Centers in Space (Orbital Data Centers): Musk's vision is to move AI data centers into space orbit. This is an unproven concept, entirely in the science fiction category.

The Energy Layer (TerraFab and 10 GW Solar): As Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said, "The first layer of AI is energy." Musk is building a massive 10 GW solar panel manufacturing facility near Austin to solve the energy crisis of space data centers. Also central to the next 10 years is the ambitious TerraFab project, aiming to be the world's largest wafer manufacturing facility capable of producing chips resistant to space radiation. Analyst JR Research gives SpaceX a "Hold" rating, issuing this critical warning: If orbital data centers and space-based AI architecture fail in the coming years, the SpaceX IPO could be the "final needle" to burst the entire global AI bubble.

However, if Musk achieves the impossible again, even this valuation will seem cheap. This stock can be put in the basket with a long-term perspective, not just for 10-20 years, but literally "to be bequeathed to future generations." Starship, successfully launched last Friday with a slight delay, is the biggest operational bastion of this vision.

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