⚠️A Zero Rate Hike by the Federal Reserve Becomes Reality❗The Market Passively and Virtually Raises Rates by 75BP | In-Depth Breakdown of On-Chain and Full-Market Crypto Capital Data

🔥Key Takeaway: The Federal Reserve’s benchmark policy rate stays put at 5.25%-5.50%, unmoved—but U.S. Treasury yields surge across the curve. Morgan Stanley and Shenwan Hongyuan estimate that this round of tightening in the bond market is equivalent to a one-time rate hike of 75 basis points. Global dollar liquidity is being drained, and the liquidity logic in the crypto market has been completely flipped!

🔴1. Tracing the Hard Data Behind the 75BP “Invisible” Rate Hike

✅1) Real Increase in U.S. Treasury Yields (Converted to Rate-Hike Benchmark)
▫️2-year U.S. Treasury: from 3.99% at the end of February to 4.74%, surging +75BP over the past 30 days, benchmarking a jump in short-term credit and institutional repo/lending costs
▫️10-year U.S. Treasury: from 3.95% spiking to 4.67%, rising +72BP across the range (industry formula: every +50BP in 10Y ≈ official rate hike of 25BP)
▫️Weighted conversion combining the short and long ends: short end +75BP and long end +72BP; weighted calculation equals an equivalent rate hike of 75BP—meaning the market has completed the tightening task the Fed didn’t “lift a hand” to do

✅2) CME Rate Futures’ Shockingly Sharp Reversal (The Most Critical Liquidity Turning-Point Data)
▫️Early-year market pricing: the Federal Reserve cuts rates 2-3 times in 2026, totaling 50～75BP
▫️Latest CME data: 99.2% probability that rates will be kept unchanged in June; only 0.8% probability of a cut for the entire month; July’s cut probability drops to zero, and the probability of a forward rate hike of 25BP rises to 11.3%
▫️Polymarket data: 66.9% pricing for zero rate cuts throughout 2026—rate cut expectations are wiped out across the board. Funds exit early after pre-pricing higher rates

✅3) Inflation & Oil-Price Catalyst Data
▫️U.S. CPI: 3.3% in March → rebounds to 3.8% in April; inflation pushes inflation constraints and locks up space for easing
▫️Brent crude’s geopolitical lift—more than 8% month-over-month—further strengthens the high-inflation, high-interest-rate pricing logic

🟠2. Virtually a 75BP Rate Hike → Quantified Impact by Layer in the Crypto Market (All real on-chain + primary data)

【1】BTC/ETH Major Coins | A “Stock Game” of Supply-Demand

▫️Linked to U.S. equities: Nasdaq monthly drawdown of 4.2%; BTC moves in the same range, with monthly volatility of 18.7%. Off-exchange incremental capital declines by 31% month-over-month (Glassnode address capital statistics)
▫️Institutional ETFs: U.S. monthly net subscriptions for crypto ETFs fall by 47% month-over-month. Large funds cut spot holdings; only top firms make small recurring buys to hold up the market floor
▫️On-chain spot: BTC large-holder addresses (≥100BTC) see a net decrease of 12,300 units over 30 days. Risk-avoidance de-leveraging by whales becomes routine

【2】Small Altcoins & “Shitcoins” | Capital Bleeds Out at a Cliff (Primary Financing Evidence)

▫️Primary market financing (CryptoRank official data): industry-wide funding totaled $662 million in April, down 74% month-over-month; funding rounds down 23% month-over-month, hitting the lowest level in nearly 12 months
▫️Active VC institutions: 383 in March → only 211 in April, down sharply by 45% month-over-month; 72% lower than the 2024 peak. Fundraising and launches for new projects slow across the board
▫️Secondary market: the whole altcoin segment averages a monthly drop of 27.3%. Only 5% of coins push through pulse-like rallies; the proportion that spikes then falls back is 95%. There is a lack of incremental capital to pick up the bids

【3】Stablecoin Liquidity (Key “Lifeblood” Data in Crypto)

▫️Total stablecoin market cap is $323 billion, but total on-chain transfers over the past 30 days drop 19% ($831 billion → $673 billion). Liquidity “water” for trading continues to shrink
▫️Structural capital flight: USDC, USDe, and PYUSD combined shrink by $4.2 billion over 30 days. Institutions pull out stablecoins to buy U.S. Treasuries and wealth-management products. Only USDT increases issuance by $5 billion; capital clusters toward the leading stablecoin(s), while mid- and small-cap stablecoins bleed across the board
▫️Ethereum on-chain stablecoin daily active addresses fall to a new intra-year low. Incoming standby capital continues to shrink

🟡3. The Federal Reserve “By Using the Wind” ❗The Tightening Environment Is Hard to Ease in the Short Term

💡Federal Reserve officials make public remarks: rising U.S. Treasury yields tighten financial conditions. Instead of official rate hikes, inflation can be suppressed without hiking rates. In the short term, they will not act to push down bond yields
▫️U.S. fiscal deficit rate rises by 1.8 percentage points. Institutional estimates: for each 1% increase in the deficit, 10Y U.S. Treasury yields rise by 78BP. Medium- and long-term interest rates are more likely to rise than fall, and the “de facto rate-hike” cycle continues

🟢4. Three Follow-Up Tracking Indicators (Data to Mark Turning Points)

1️⃣ U.S. CPI & Non-Farm Payrolls: CPI falls to within 3% → U.S. Treasury yields decline; the equivalent rate-hike effect fades, opening a capital repair window for crypto. If data rebounds → yields keep rising and the market remains under pressure
2️⃣ International oil prices: if oil breaks below $85 → inflation pressure eases and rate-cut expectations improve; if it holds above $110 → inflation rebounds and the high-interest-rate pricing strength keeps building
3️⃣ Stablecoin incremental supply: stablecoins across all categories add in sync, and on-chain trading value stops falling and turns up = off-exchange dollars flow back in. A new incremental bull market in crypto starts

🔴End-of-Article Summary

❗The 75BP “invisible” rate hike is already in effect. The crypto market bids farewell to the broad-based bull market of nonstop gains. The data proves that capital is continuously rotating from altcoins into BTC/ETH, and supply-side differentiation among tokens has become the norm
Until a liquidity turning point appears, strictly control position sizing, avoid systemic risks from niche altcoins, closely track U.S. macro data turning points, and wait patiently for easing expectations to warm up!#ArthurHayes看好HYPE超越SOL #ETH在2000关口震荡 @Gate Live $BTC $GT $ETH ‌