# 美联储议息

This week, BTC fluctuated within the 74,800-79,000 range, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (early morning of 4/30) as the core variable. High interest rates suppress valuations, and ETF capital support is limited. In the short term, the market is biased toward weak oscillation, with rebounds only serving as corrections. The main strategy is to go short on rallies and buy on dips, with key levels at 76,000-79,000. Position sizes should be strictly controlled with stop-losses, waiting quietly for the decision to guide the direction.

📈 WTI breaks above 108; gold prices stay flat: What is the market afraid of?
Oil prices and gold prices—those “difficult brothers” that usually move up together when geopolitics turns tense—are showing a rare split in their trend. Behind it lies an intense contest between two core logics.
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1. 🚢 Geopolitical premium: from “expectation” to “payment”
The strait’s “toll” has moved from proposal to a substantive stage.
• Key progress: Iran’s comprehensive control plan is leaked from parliament; it’s reported that the first fee has already been credited. Strait transit efficiency has dropped

$BTC
📅 April Federal Reserve Rate Decision Window: The "Undercurrents" in Consensus
​Currently, CME interest rate swap pricing shows a 87.6% probability of maintaining rates unchanged in April, which should be a foregone conclusion of "holding steady."
However, what truly warrants vigilance is that 12.4% rate hike expectation — this probability has doubled since early month, reflecting deep market anxiety about "secondary inflation."
​Core Logic Analysis:
​Hard landing inflation concerns: Recent strength in energy prices and service sector resilience have blurred the return path of PCE data,