#BTC Currently, the statements at the hearing are somewhat contradictory. Why is it "contradictory"? Wosh's policy stance can be described as "an eagle disguised as a dove." His core views seem self-contradictory but actually have an internal logic. 1. Attitude towards tapering: He emphasizes that "the balance sheet must be significantly reduced," which is a long-term bearish signal. If this issue is handled vaguely, the pressure is temporarily eased. 2. Attribution of inflation: He blames inflation on past "fiscal deficits and money printing" (a tough stance), rather than external factors, implying that future policies won't be easily loosened. 3. Statement on independence: The more he emphasizes the Fed's "independence," the more it means that even if the White House pressures, it won't easily loosen policy to rescue the market. The hearing continues with a vague style, and the market's short-term reaction has been relatively muted. Geopolitical risks are piling up: tonight, besides the hearing, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is about to expire. If the conflict escalates and oil prices surge, it could trigger a global stock sell-off. Bitcoin won't be immune either and may further decline. Based on current news, Vance didn't even attend the negotiations, which indicates a lack of sincerity. There may already be some behind-the-scenes moves. Keep an eye on the Middle East situation. If things escalate, there could be a sharp drop.

Throughout the day, Bitcoin and Ethereum's trends mainly revolve around high-level oscillations and pullbacks, with the rhythm of rallying high and then retreating. Although the fluctuations are not extremely intense, the structure is very suitable for shorting around the rebound highs. Bitcoin stabilized above 75,000 in the morning and gradually moved higher, reaching near 77,000 in the afternoon to evening, then faced resistance and pulled back. Multiple attempts to break through the 76,400–76,600 zone in the evening failed, and it has now retreated back near 75,800. Ethereum's movement synchronized with Bitcoin, gradually rising from around 2,280, peaking near 2,346 before encountering clear resistance. In the evening, it followed Bitcoin in a series of retests, falling back to around 2,300 for consolidation. From the overall daily trend, the market remains in a cycle of "rebound—resistance—retreat," which aligns closely with our core strategic layout today. The overall approach has been to operate around high levels, especially capturing the retracement opportunities at key rebound points near the upper range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum provided relatively ideal profit-taking opportunities, resulting in substantial gains. As always, the market never disappoints those who are prepared. The real difference is not made by one or two judgments but by maintaining clear thinking and execution during volatility. Looking at the current market structure, on the daily chart, Bitcoin is still in the rebound correction zone after the previous decline. Although it has temporarily regained above 75,000, the 76,800–77,200 zone remains a strong resistance area. There has been no true trend reversal on the daily chart. Focusing on the 4-hour structure, after consecutive surges, the momentum at the highs has clearly slowed. The candlesticks show multiple upper shadows and repeated tests at high levels, indicating diminishing upward energy. The 77,000 level has formed a temporary intraday high resistance, suggesting this is more the end of a 4-hour rebound rather than the start of a new upward wave. Ethereum's 4-hour structure is also relatively weak, with a clear resistance zone around 2,335–2,350. Multiple attempts to break through have failed to stabilize, indicating insufficient buying enthusiasm. The short-term 1-hour chart shows some partial recovery but mainly reflects a weak rebound after consolidation, unable to change the high-level resistance pattern of the larger cycle. Therefore, the subsequent trading strategy remains bearish. #美伊二轮谈判进展 $BTC