Instituição: Cuidado com a nova subida dos juros de longo prazo nos mercados desenvolvidos

Golden Financial reports that on May 18th, CITIC Securities’ research report states that on May 15th, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.0%, two key psychological thresholds being surpassed; meanwhile, long-term interest rates in major developed markets such as the UK, Japan, and Germany moved upward in tandem, putting global risk assets under pressure. We believe that the recent rise in interest rates is driven by the comprehensive increase in U.S. inflation data, the muscle memory of the “Wash Shock,” the highlighted pressure from U.S. Treasury supply, political turmoil in the UK, and concerns over capital flow backflows triggered by rising Japanese bond yields. As a global asset pricing anchor, the significant rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is expected to lead to a stronger dollar, depressed valuations of growth stocks, pressure on precious metals and long-duration credit assets, and liquidity shocks to emerging markets. We believe that the market previously ignored oil prices and inflation risks, but in an environment where global crude oil inventories are continuously being depleted, the combination of high oil prices, inflation, and interest rates may persist. The subsequent focus will be on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and policy signals following Wosh’s appointment. (Jin10)