In June 2026, after more than three months of effective blockade, the Strait of Hormuz finally entered a reopening window. On June 15, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and President Trump announced at the G7 Summit that the Strait would be "fully open" on June 19. Following the announcement, international oil prices dropped sharply—Brent crude fell from its wartime peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30 to below $78 on June 18.
However, the transition from "announced reopening" to "full normal operations" faces four major hurdles: mine clearance, capacity restoration, rebuilding shipping capacity, and restoring market confidence. This article breaks down the real roadmap for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from three perspectives: the mine clearance timeline, the pace of supply-side recovery, and the path of oil price normalization.
Mine Clearance: The 40–50 Day "First Safety Gate"
The primary obstacle to resuming normal commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is the large number of naval mines laid during the conflict.
According to Reuters, citing Western maritime security sources, clearing the mines to ensure safe passage could take 40 to 50 days. Jakob Larsen, Head of Maritime Safety at BIMCO, confirmed that the entire demining process would require 40 to 50 days and called for the establishment of "mine-free corridors" in advance. Earlier, a classified Pentagon briefing estimated that fully clearing Iranian-laid mines could take up to six months—though Pentagon spokespeople later downplayed the feasibility of that assessment.
The number and distribution of mines remain the biggest unknowns. Phil Belcher, Marine Director at Intertanko, cited recent data indicating that at least 80 mines are located near the main shipping lanes of the Strait. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard previously warned of a "danger zone" covering 1,400 square kilometers—an area equivalent to 14 times the size of Paris. While the memorandum of understanding specifies that "Iran will begin mine clearance within 30 days," maritime experts caution that even with minesweepers and sonar technology quickly locating most mines, some may have shifted or remain hidden, requiring thorough post-clearance verification of navigational safety.
In short, mine clearance is not an operation that can be "completed overnight." The 40 to 50-day demining period means that, until late July or early August, the Strait cannot be considered a "safe commercial waterway."
Restoration of Shipping: Three Phases from "Vessel Passage" to "Supply Chain Normalization"
Even after mine clearance, the return to normal shipping will be a phased process.
According to shipping analytics firm Xeneta, full normalization of container shipping may not occur until mid-September 2026. Peter Sand, Xeneta’s Chief Analyst, noted that before the conflict, 99 container routes operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf, deploying a combined capacity of 3.2 million TEUs—about 10% of the global container fleet. Today, only 11 routes remain active, with hundreds of vessels forced to reroute or shift to other global trade lanes.
Xeneta expects the recovery to unfold in three phases: first, releasing vessels stranded in the Arabian Gulf; second, restoring regional feeder services; and third, gradually resuming major trunk routes such as Asia-Europe and Asia–North America. Even under the most optimistic scenario, shipping analysts believe it will take at least three months to fully restore maritime supply chain networks.
Traffic data confirms the slow pace of recovery. According to industry data cited by The New York Times, about 25 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day—up from wartime lows but still far below the pre-crisis norm of 125 to 140 vessels daily. Around 600 ships remain anchored in the Persian Gulf. Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief of Lloyd’s List, stated bluntly: "We are in uncharted territory. I don’t think shipping through the Strait will return to normal this year."
Capacity Bottleneck: The 14.4 Million Barrels per Day Gap Can’t Be Filled Overnight
There is a significant gap between "permission to export" and "restoring production." According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the closure of the Strait has reduced Gulf oil production by 14.4 million barrels per day compared to pre-war levels. Middle Eastern oil producers have slashed output by more than 11 million barrels per day.
Capacity recovery faces three main constraints. First, some oil wells were forced to shut down for months, and some production facilities suffered damage. The Iranian Oil and Gas Exporters’ Union reports that Iran’s natural gas output has dropped by about 10%, and fully repairing damaged facilities will take up to two years. Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that rebuilding the region’s oil and gas infrastructure will cost around $42 billion. Second, there are shortages of tanker capacity and manpower—many tankers were rerouted or idled during the conflict, and crew members are reluctant to return to the Gulf due to safety concerns. Third, even after wells restart, empty tankers must first enter the Strait to load existing inventories before making room for new production, a process that itself takes weeks.
ICICI Bank Research projects that Gulf Cooperation Council countries will restore output to 82% of pre-war capacity by September 2026 and reach 90% by December. In other words, supply will remain "tightly balanced" until the end of the third quarter.
The Unique Dilemma in the LNG Market: 20% of Global Supply Frozen and Long-Term Capacity Damage
The recovery path for the natural gas market is even more complicated than for oil. The IEA notes that the effective closure of the Strait has removed nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply from the market. Wood Mackenzie’s analysis further suggests that, even under a "summer reconciliation" scenario, LNG flows will not resume until September 2026, with full recovery delayed until 2028.
Worse still, attacks on Middle Eastern LNG liquefaction facilities during the conflict have caused lasting capacity damage. The IEA warns that these losses are reshaping the medium-term supply-demand balance. Repairs to Qatar’s damaged lines, with an annual capacity of about 12.8 million tons, will take three to five years. Even after the Strait reopens, LNG supply will return much more slowly than oil.
Oil Price Recovery Path: Divergence and Consensus Among Institutions
Major institutions have issued sharply differing but logically grounded forecasts for Brent crude’s trajectory.
Citibank slashed its oil price forecast on June 16, lowering its Q3 2026 Brent average from $95 to $75 per barrel, Q4 from $80 to $70, and its 2027 outlook further down to $65. The core logic: if the US-Iran deal restores trade flows through the Strait by late July, oil prices will shift from "geopolitical risk premium pricing" back to "supply-demand fundamentals."
Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 2026 Brent forecast from $90 to $80, and its 2027 average from $80 to $75. However, Goldman also notes that risks remain skewed to the upside—if the Strait remains disrupted into 2027, Brent could surge past $130 per barrel by late 2026.
ICICI Bank Research expects Brent to remain in the $75–85 range in H2 2026, citing tight physical markets and restocking demand, then turn bearish in 2027 as supply rises, projecting $65–75 per barrel.
Barclays maintains its forecast of a $100 Brent average for 2026, arguing that supply recovery will be slower than the market currently anticipates.
In summary, while institutions disagree mainly on the "speed of recovery," there is a basic consensus: Brent crude will likely trade in the $75–85 range in H2 2026, and as supply gradually returns in 2027, the price center will shift down to $65–75.
Risk Variables: Agreement Implementation and Inventory Thresholds
All these forecasts rest on a key assumption—the ceasefire agreement will hold. However, the memorandum of understanding is only a 60-day interim framework, with core issues like Iran’s nuclear program deferred for future talks. President Trump has also stated that the US will strike Iran again if it believes Iran is not complying. In addition, passage fees for the Strait remain a major US-Iran sticking point—the memorandum only guarantees free passage for 60 days. Any breakdown in the agreement or renewed escalation could drive oil prices back above $90 per barrel.
Another risk the market may be underestimating is that global crude inventories have fallen to critical lows. US crude stocks have declined for nine consecutive weeks, dropping by a total of 52 million barrels. Cushing, the key storage hub, holds about 21 million barrels—if it falls below 20 million, it could disrupt storage and transportation infrastructure. ExxonMobil Senior Vice President Neil Chapman notes that current crude inventories are at historically rare lows, and if they hit critical thresholds, prices could spike rapidly. Low inventories mean the market has very limited buffer against any supply disruption—even a brief flare-up could trigger sharp price swings.
Conclusion
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz should not be seen as a simple signal that the energy crisis is over. From the 40–50 days required for mine clearance, to at least three months for shipping network restoration, and not reaching 90% of capacity until the end of 2026—this path to recovery must be measured in months, not days. For traders, the market’s core dilemma is not a binary "open or closed" Strait, but an ongoing contest over "how fast recovery happens" and "whether the agreement will hold." With inventories at historic lows, any supply-side disruption could be significantly amplified. In the coming months, oil prices are likely to fluctuate widely between $75 and $85 per barrel, and true "price normalization"—a return to pre-conflict levels below $70 per barrel—may have to wait until after 2027, when supply is fully restored.
