🤔 1500 dollars defense battle, $ETH ‌ How much longer can the bulls hold?

BTC $BTC ‌ lost the 60k level again, with ETH hitting a low of 1510. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 12, extreme fear. Today, tens of billions in options are expiring. How will the market move?

First, look at the ETH chart

Three consecutive bearish daily candles, with all moving averages in a bearish alignment. RSI 6 is only 19.78, which is indeed oversold, but oversold doesn't mean an immediate rebound. MACD is still lingering below the zero line, with DIF and DEA converging.

The 1500-1510 zone is critical.

If it holds, there's room to breathe; if it doesn't, the downside opens up—1420 or even 1350-1400. Above, 1560-1570 is the first resistance; only by breaking above that can we target 1620.

BTC is also not optimistic

It temporarily held near 58,000, but the rebound clearly stalled at 60,000-60,300.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a nearly two-year low, with capital flowing from Ethereum to BTC and stablecoins.

The recent decline is also related to the blow-up of Strategy's STRC preferred shares. The company holds 840,000 BTC at an average cost of $75,651, with an unrealized loss of over $11 billion. The market fears it may be forced to sell coins for cash to pay dividends, creating a negative spiral of "the more it falls, the more they sell; the more they sell, the more it falls."

A few personal opinions

1️⃣ At the 1500 level, both bulls and bears need to watch. If it stabilizes with volume, you can try a small position for a rebound, but stop-loss must be strict. If the body breaks below 1495, don't hold.

2️⃣ Today is options expiration day, with the most violent volatility around the US session open. Reduce leverage, observe more and act less, don't force trades.

3️⃣ ETH is clearly weaker than BTC in this round. If you want to go long, prioritize BTC; if you want to go short, watch ETH—it falls faster.

Is 1500 the bottom or a breakdown? Discuss your thoughts in the comments 👇