Bitcoin Drops 3% to $72,739 as Prediction Markets Price 27% Odds of May Close Below $70K

Bitcoin dropped approximately 3% over 24 hours to $72,739 on May 28, hitting a six-week low of $72,669 and trading roughly 42% below its $126,080 all-time high. Prediction market Myriad showed 27% odds that Bitcoin closes May below $70,000, up about 240% in 24 hours, while Polymarket's equivalent market priced the same outcome at 26%. The decline unfolded alongside $924 million in leveraged position liquidations over 24 hours—including approximately $851 million in longs—and spot Bitcoin ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion across two trading days.

Price Movement and Prediction Market Odds

Bitcoin traded around $72,739 on May 28, sitting only 3.9% above the $70,000 level. The asset now trades approximately 42% below its $126,080 all-time high.

Myriad's market on whether Bitcoin will close May below the $70,000 strike climbed to 27% odds, up roughly 240% in 24 hours. Polymarket's equivalent contract priced the same outcome at 26%.

On longer-dated Polymarket contracts, traders assigned 54% odds that Bitcoin trades below $55,000 at some point before 2027, and 42% odds the asset prints below $50,000 during 2026. A Robinhood contract on Bitcoin closing at $73,300 or above on May 28 priced near 99¢, with $74,000 or above at only 2¢ approaching expiry.

Leveraged Liquidations and ETF Outflows

Roughly $924 million in crypto futures positions were wiped out over 24 hours, with about $851 million of that coming from long positions.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed more than $1 billion over the prior two trading days, with $733 million of net outflows on the previous Wednesday alone. A cumulative $2.6 billion was pulled across an eight-day losing streak.

An Arctic Digital analyst noted the decline is "partly due to ETF outflows, with serious amounts getting out," characterizing the redemptions as a meaningful driver of spot weakness rather than a side effect.