According to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s approximately 20% price surge in April—from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000—was driven by speculative perpetual futures demand rather than fundamental spot buying, increasing correction risk.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, noted that perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of the rally while spot apparent demand remained negative throughout April. This divergence, with rising futures positioning alongside contracting spot demand, historically precedes unsustained price gains. The firm’s Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, returning to bearish territory, suggesting onchain fundamentals deteriorated after the speculative rally. Bitcoin was trading around $78,500 as of early May.
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