Spot gold closed at $4328.92 per ounce on June 5, down 3.25% for the day, while domestic gold jewelry brands including Zhou Dafu, Zhou Shengsheng, and Lao Fengxiang reported per-gram price declines of 36–39 yuan overnight on June 6. The drop followed the U.S. May employment report showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll additions, which elevated market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December to approximately 70% from 50%. Gold prices have now retreated to levels last seen at the end of 2025, erasing most gains accumulated since the January 29 peak of $5535.6 per ounce for international gold and corresponding domestic highs of 1708–1722 yuan per gram.
Domestic Gold Brands Report 36–39 Yuan Per-Gram Decline on June 6
Zhou Dafu's standard gold jewelry price stood at 1323 yuan per gram on June 6, down 37 yuan from the previous day's 1360 yuan. Zhou Shengsheng reported 1315 yuan per gram, a 39-yuan decline from 1354 yuan, while Lao Fengxiang listed 1316 yuan per gram, down 36 yuan from 1352 yuan. COMEX gold futures fell 3.35% to close at $4353.90 per ounce on June 5, marking a year-to-date decline of 1.62%. Spot silver dropped 8.09% to $67.885 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures declined 8.08% to $67.995 per ounce, down 5.5% year-to-date.
Gold Prices Retreat from January 29 Peak of $5535.6 Per Ounce
International gold reached its highest point on January 29, closing at $5535.6 per ounce. Domestic retail prices for gold jewelry followed the rally, with Lao Miao Gold, Zhou Shengsheng, and Lao Fengxiang reporting prices of 1722 yuan per gram, 1708 yuan per gram, and 1713 yuan per gram respectively on that date. Compared to the year's peak, the three brands' per-gram prices have fallen 401 yuan, 393 yuan, and 397 yuan respectively as of June 6.
One investor, Ms. Wang, purchased over 30 grams of gold jewelry on May 5. Based on June 6 prices, she calculated she would have saved nearly 5,000 yuan if she had waited. Another investor reported closing a position at an 86,000 yuan loss after initially holding a 40,000 yuan profit and later declining to sell at a 20,000 yuan loss.
U.S. May Employment Data Elevates Fed Rate Hike Probability to 70%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May employment report on the evening of June 5, showing nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs month-over-month, with the private sector adding 120,000 and government adding 52,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in May, continuing to fluctuate within a narrow 4.3%–4.5% range since July 2025. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool data, market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose to approximately 70% following the report's release, up from roughly 50% before the data.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, stated: "The nonfarm payroll data came in significantly above market expectations. Given that the Middle East conflict continues, energy prices remain elevated, and inflation pressures are significant, the Federal Reserve has almost no willingness to cut rates. In this context, the cost of holding gold is becoming increasingly high."
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Revise Gold Price Targets Downward
Morgan Stanley lowered its second-half target for gold to $5200 per ounce in late April, down from a previous forecast of $5700. The bank cited geopolitical friction driving real interest rates higher and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a return of gold's classic negative correlation with real rates. JPMorgan revised its average gold price forecast to $5243 per ounce from $5708 per ounce. The JPMorgan report noted that precious metals markets have entered a wait-and-see period with noticeably cooled investor interest, while maintaining a fourth-quarter target of $6000 per ounce.
Ping An Securities stated in a research report that gold is expected to maintain a volatile trend in June against the backdrop of rising oil price centers and gradually emerging overseas inflation pressures. Global central banks resumed adding gold reserves in April, with Poland's central bank remaining the largest buyer and China's central bank achieving its 18th consecutive month of increases. The report noted that in the short term, Middle East geopolitical situations are lifting oil price centers and overseas inflation pressures are gradually appearing, potentially putting some pressure on gold prices. In the medium term, deepening U.S. fiscal issues and weakening dollar credit status leave gold's medium- and long-term pricing framework unchanged, supporting a positive outlook for medium- and long-term price trends.
FAQ
What happened to gold prices on June 5–6?
Spot gold closed at $4328.92 per ounce on June 5, down 3.25% for the day. Domestic gold jewelry brands reported per-gram price declines of 36–39 yuan on June 6, with Zhou Dafu at 1323 yuan per gram, Zhou Shengsheng at 1315 yuan per gram, and Lao Fengxiang at 1316 yuan per gram.
Why did gold prices fall after the U.S. May employment report?
The U.S. May nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Following the report's release on June 5, market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose to approximately 70% from 50%, increasing the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
What are institutional forecasts for gold prices?
Morgan Stanley cut its second-half target to $5200 per ounce from $5700 in late April. JPMorgan revised its average price forecast to $5243 per ounce from $5708 per ounce, while maintaining a fourth-quarter target of $6000 per ounce.
