JPMorgan: Stablecoin trading volumes have surged, but the velocity mechanism prevents market capitalization from growing proportionally

JPMorgan analyst released the latest stablecoin market observations on May 1, pointing out that stablecoin trading volume is rising rapidly, but that an increase in “velocity” means the total market cap may not grow in tandem. JPM also reiterated its long-term stance: by 2028, stablecoin market cap is expected to be about $500 billion to $600 billion, rather than “trillion-level” projections often cited by optimistic market participants. This view extends in a different direction from the debate raised by a16z on 4/30, arguing that stablecoins are already a baseline and that the future should be “programmatic money.”

Current numbers: Q1 market cap $315 billion, Q1 trading volume $2.8 trillion, annualized $1.72 trillion

2026 Q1 stablecoin market figures: total market cap at $315 billion, a new all-time high; Q1 trading volume at $2.8 trillion (up 51% quarter-over-quarter). Based on year-to-date data, JPM analysts estimate that full-year trading volume will be annualized at about $1.72 trillion. If this figure comes to pass, it would be more than double the scale of 2025.

The core of JPM’s view is the “velocity mechanism”: when the same unit of stablecoin is repeatedly used in a shorter period of time, trading volume can grow significantly, but the market still only needs the same size of stablecoin supply. In other words, trading volume expansion and market-cap expansion are two different growth curves—volume grows faster, while market cap grows more slowly.

2028 forecast: $500-600 billion, not trillion-level

JPM reiterated its projected stablecoin market-cap range for 2028: $500-600 billion. This figure is clearly more conservative than other bullish estimates in the same industry (some institutions estimate it could reach $1-2 trillion by 2030). JPM’s argument is that stablecoin demand today is still mainly an “accrypto market story,” rather than a “payments story”—users’ overwhelming use cases are crypto trading, arbitrage, and transfers across platforms, while real retail payments penetration is still at an early stage.

This stance differs from a16z’s 5/1 claim that “stablecoins will become obsolete, and the future will be programmatic money.” The two are making judgments in different directions: a16z believes the technology has matured enough to be described by what it can do, while JPM argues that the core application scenarios of what it can do have not yet moved beyond the crypto market, and that growth has an upper limit. For the crypto industry, in a 24-hour window, two flagship institutions have each published positions on the stablecoin topic, reflecting that stablecoins have entered a “mainstream investment institutions debate phase.”

What to watch next: whether JPM adjusts its valuation range in the Q2 report, and the impact of the GENIUS Act

JPM typically issues updated projections each quarter. The next point of observation is whether its Q2 2026 midterm report (expected to be released at the end of July) will adjust its 2028 market-cap range. Another structural variable is whether the CLARITY Act, which may enter the Senate Banking Committee for line-by-line review in May—if the legislation clearly defines the legal status of stablecoins, the regulatory boundaries, and how they interact with the banking industry—will affect how quickly stablecoins expand from “crypto market tools” into “real payment scenarios.”

This article JPMorgan: stablecoin trading volume surges, but the velocity mechanism means market cap won’t grow proportionally first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.