Combined Volume Milestone
Polymarket and Kalshi’s combined lifetime trading volumes crossed $150 billion in April, according to The Block’s data. This milestone came as the seven-month streak of record monthly highs ended, marking the first decline in total sector trading activity since the platforms began experiencing explosive growth in September.
Monthly Activity Decline
The April decline was driven by lower activity on Polymarket’s global platform, while the firm’s U.S. subsidiary—still being rolled out—grew alongside Kalshi. Polymarket’s active trader count dropped to approximately 643,000 in April, down from over 733,000 in March, breaking another seven-month growth streak, according to The Block’s data. This coincided with a drop in U.S. dollar volumes on the site, as well as a plunge in notional volume on both platforms.
Regulatory Landscape and Legal Wins
Polymarket and Kalshi remain the leading prediction markets in a sector gaining widespread attention and regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi won a legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2024 to offer election-related contracts, opening the door for expansion and U.S. market foothold. That lawsuit also paved the way for Polymarket to reenter the U.S. by acquiring a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, after it was previously banned for offering unregistered event contracts. Polymarket is now reportedly looking to onboard its entire global marketplace into the U.S.
The CFTC, under a new administration, now embraces prediction market experimentation, having issued guidance to foster innovation and withdrawn prior stricter guidelines on gaming contracts. The agency has filed lawsuits against several states looking to bar prediction markets based on the legal theory that events contracts are binary derivatives under federal remit.
Kalshi is quickly gaining traction in the sports betting category, which is drawing scrutiny from state-level regulators and gaming authorities.
Funding and Compliance Measures
In March, Kalshi raised capital at a $22 billion valuation. Polymarket, previously backed by NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange, is reportedly looking to raise at a $15 billion valuation. Both firms are actively taking steps to bar insider trading on their platforms.
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