Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs published sanction proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi in Spain's Official State Gazette on Tuesday, classifying both platforms as unlicensed gambling operators. The ministry simultaneously ordered internet service providers to block access to both websites nationwide, with the blocking taking effect within 7 to 10 days depending on the operator. The sanction process itself is expected to run three to four months before a final resolution. Spain joins a growing list of countries treating prediction markets as gambling, regardless of their blockchain-based or regulatory-compliant structures.
The regulatory action reflects consumer protection concerns specific to Spanish law. Prediction markets allow users to bet money on uncertain future outcomes, which qualifies as gambling under Spanish regulations. Licensed gambling operators in Spain must implement age verification systems, access controls for minors, self-exclusion mechanisms for problem gamblers, and ongoing user monitoring. The Ministry's Directorate General for Gambling Regulation determined that both Polymarket and Kalshi lack these safeguards entirely.
Political Timing and Market Sensitivity
Polymarket recently opened a market on the possible early end of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's term. Kalshi currently offers bets on which national leader will leave office in 2026, with Sánchez listed at 29% probability. Both markets generated attention on Spanish social media, attracting regulatory scrutiny that may have accelerated the ministry's action.
Global Regulatory Pattern
Spain is not acting in isolation. Brazil blocked both platforms earlier this year as part of a broader crackdown on prediction markets operating without gambling compliance. Indonesia blocked Polymarket last week after bets on President Prabowo's resignation spread on local social media. The pattern is consistent across jurisdictions: governments classify event-contract betting as gambling, then act when politically sensitive markets emerge on the platforms.
| Country | Action | Trigger |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Brazil | Block | Gambling compliance |
| Indonesia | Block | Presidential resignation bets |
| Spain | Block + Sanctions | Unlicensed operation + political markets |
Jurisdictional Distinctions and Regulatory Framework
Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation in the United States, a licensed, compliant framework. Polymarket is blockchain-based and decentralized. In Spain, that distinction is irrelevant—neither platform holds a Spanish gambling license, so both face identical treatment. Technical architecture does not override local gambling classification. A decentralized prediction market without local licensing faces the same blocking order as a traditional betting platform.
Challenge and Enforcement
Both platforms can challenge the proceedings through the sanction process. However, direct notification attempts by the ministry at known foreign addresses already failed, suggesting limited cooperation from the platforms themselves.
