The US Commerce Department faces a June 30 deadline to submit a copper market assessment report recommending whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper. Market expectations point to phased tariffs of 15% starting in 2027 and 30% in 2028, following an existing 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products imposed in August. The tariff anticipation triggered a 2025 import surge of approximately 1.4 million tons of refined copper into the US, roughly 800,000 tons above normal levels, while a widening price spread between COMEX and LME copper futures since May 2026 — reaching $400 per ton and peaking at $500 — intensified global supply imbalances. The policy shift reflects copper's elevation to strategic resource status for AI-era infrastructure, as the US Geological Survey added copper to its critical minerals list in November 2025, yet the resulting supply concentration has created a non-US market deficit that Goldman Sachs estimates expanded from 60,000 tons to nearly 650,000 tons.
COMEX-LME Price Spread Drives Record US Copper Inventory Accumulation
The COMEX-LME copper futures price differential since May 2026 created arbitrage opportunities that redirected global copper flows toward US warehouses. On May 22, over 50,000 tons of copper were withdrawn from London Metal Exchange warehouses in a single day and shipped to the US, marking the largest concentrated withdrawal since 2013. As of May 29, COMEX copper inventory reached approximately 650,000 tons, a record high, while LME inventory stood at roughly 389,400 tons, near monthly lows. He Weiwen, executive director of the China Society for World Trade Studies and senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, stated in an interview with Sanlihhe that the White House tariffs on copper products and derivatives "severely disrupted the normal supply-demand relationship in the global copper market."
USGS Designates Copper Critical Mineral for AI Infrastructure Demand
In November 2025, the US Geological Survey published its 2025 critical minerals list, incorporating copper among 10 newly added critical minerals. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attributed copper's strategic importance to its zero power consumption, low latency, and high reliability in data center connections, stating that copper cabling will serve as the physical foundation for data center connectivity over the next 5 to 10 years. He Weiwen noted that copper is irreplaceable in power generation, with supercomputing, artificial intelligence, and big data industries all requiring substantial electricity. Relevant calculations indicate that by 2030, copper demand growth from grid and power infrastructure will exceed 60% of total incremental demand.
Mine Disruptions and Supply Forecast Cuts Push Copper Prices Higher
Production disruptions at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine and the Democratic Republic of Congo's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine are expected to constrain supply until 2028, when both operations are projected to return to full capacity. Goldman Sachs reduced its 2026 global copper mine supply growth forecast by 350,000 tons and raised its year-end copper price projection by over 10% to $13,735 per ton. He Weiwen stated that global copper supply will remain tight at least in the medium term.
White House Issues June 1 Order Easing Copper Import Thresholds
On June 1, the White House issued a presidential order relaxing import thresholds for steel, aluminum, and copper, citing the impact of high tariffs on critical equipment in agriculture, construction, and industrial sectors. The order aims to mitigate disruptions to these key industries. He Weiwen characterized the threshold adjustment as a forced response, stating that "the US government was compelled" to ease restrictions as high tariff repercussions became apparent.
FAQ
What deadline does the US Commerce Department face regarding copper tariffs?
The US Commerce Department must submit a copper market assessment report by June 30, providing recommendations on whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper. Market expectations suggest phased tariffs of 15% starting in 2027 and 30% in 2028.
How did the COMEX-LME price spread affect copper inventory distribution in May 2026?
Since May 2026, the COMEX-LME copper futures price spread widened to $400 per ton, peaking at $500, incentivizing traders to redirect copper to US warehouses. On May 22, over 50,000 tons were withdrawn from LME warehouses in the largest single-day withdrawal since 2013, contributing to COMEX inventory reaching a record ~650,000 tons by May 29 while LME inventory fell to ~389,400 tons.
Why did the USGS add copper to its critical minerals list in November 2025?
The US Geological Survey added copper to its November 2025 critical minerals list due to its essential role in AI-era infrastructure, particularly data center connectivity. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that copper cabling will serve as the physical foundation for data center connections over the next 5 to 10 years, with calculations showing grid and power infrastructure will drive over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030.
