ZeroHedge said in a social media post on June 15 that once SPCX options are opened, it could trigger a Gamma squeeze, and in extreme cases could push the stock price toward $400. Calculated using about 13.1 billion fully diluted shares, $400 corresponds to a market cap of roughly $5.2 trillion. Reuters reported that SPCX (SpaceX) options may begin trading as early as Tuesday on the Cboe.
SPCX’s Float Structure Confirmed: Why It’s More Sensitive to Buy Orders in the Short Term
In the early stage of SPCX’s listing, only a small portion of shares entered the secondary market; relative to the company’s overall valuation, the initial publicly tradable float ratio was relatively low. ZeroHedge’s analysis argues that the combination of low float and Elon Musk’s narrative makes the stock price within a short time window more similar to that of a newly issued stock concentrated on buy-side demand, rather than a mature mega-cap stock (such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—stocks with huge institutional shareholding, index funds, and arbitrage capital from market makers).
SPCX’s after-hours quote briefly neared $230, reflecting tight positioning in the short term, but it cannot directly indicate that long-term capital has accepted that valuation.
Reuters Reveals the Options Launch Timing, ZeroHedge’s Gamma Squeeze Logic
Based on a confirmed report from Reuters, SPCX options will begin trading at the earliest on Tuesday after opening on the Cboe. ZeroHedge’s $400 scenario is based on the following mechanism logic (a framework within ZeroHedge’s analysis, not a result independently confirmed by the market): when a large number of investors buy call options, market makers need to buy the underlying stock to hedge risk; the higher the stock price rises, the more underlying shares the market makers may need to buy, forming a positive feedback loop.
ZeroHedge believes that SPCX simultaneously has a low float, a hot narrative, retail attention, and an options-opening window, which could form an effective Gamma squeeze. ZeroHedge set the boundary: “What can be said now is that the machine has the conditions to start; what cannot be said is that the machine has definitely started.”
The Confirmation Scope and Limitations of Vanda Track Data
ZeroHedge cites Vanda Track data showing that SPCX ranked first on the retail net buying leaderboard for the second consecutive trading day. Retail net buying was about $93.8 million on the day, accounting for approximately 73% of total U.S. single-stock retail net buying on that day.
ZeroHedge clearly states that this data cannot be cross-verified in independent public channels; it is more suitable as a reference for observing retail congestion rather than a market fact confirmed by multiple parties. In the same period, short or inverse leveraged ETFs such as SQQQ and SOXS still received buy-side flows; ZeroHedge points out that this suggests retail is not broadly rushing into risk assets, but focusing attention on a single narrative—SPCX.
What Verification Conditions Does ZeroHedge’s $400 Scenario Require
ZeroHedge confirmed that the $400 scenario needs real data support from the options market, not emotion-driven discussions on social media. ZeroHedge says the key indicators to observe include:
· Real trading volume on the first day of in-the-money call options and over the following days
· Open interest and strike price distribution for in-the-money call options
· The direction of changes in implied volatility (IV)
· Real underlying stock trade and buy-side follow-through at higher levels
· Market maker net Gamma exposure (Net Gamma Exposure)
ZeroHedge’s conclusion is: only if these data all point in the same direction will ZeroHedge’s $400 scenario shift from an extreme hypothetical projection into a risk that the market must price.
Common Questions
Is ZeroHedge’s $400 target a market consensus?
No. ZeroHedge clearly points out that $400 is an extreme upside scenario proposed by ZeroHedge on June 15, 2026. It is not a current market consensus or a benchmark judgment that can be independently derived based on existing evidence. Using about 13.1 billion fully diluted shares, $400 corresponds to a market cap of roughly $5.2 trillion. ZeroHedge compares this with Nvidia’s market cap; it is part of its hypothetical scenario, not a valuation basis recognized by the market.
When and where will SPCX options open?
According to Reuters, SPCX options will begin trading as early as Tuesday, with Cboe expected to open them on Tuesday. Reuters cites market participants’ expectations that early trading may be very heavy, with high volatility, and that option premiums may also be expensive.
What is the core logic behind the Gamma squeeze mechanism?
ZeroHedge explains that when many investors buy call options, market makers need to buy the underlying stock to hedge risk; the more the stock price rises, the more underlying shares the market makers may need to buy, creating a positive feedback loop. For SPCX, the low float may make this mechanism produce greater price elasticity when conditions are sufficient. ZeroHedge emphasizes that for now, it can only indicate that the trigger conditions exist, and it cannot confirm that a Gamma squeeze will definitely occur.
