根據 Cointelegraph 於 5 月 26 發布的市場分析，Ethereum 在日線圖上形成了看跌旗形（bear pennant），這是一種技術性盤整模式，目標是下跌至約 $1,800——相較目前水位下跌 14%。看跌設置緊接在 ETH 從 2,400 美元以上的數月高點下跌 13% 之後出現。Ethereum 的總鎖倉量（TVL）已跌至 1,160 億美元，為自 2025 年 4 月以來的最低點，較 2025 年 8 月 14 日創下的 2,580 億美元歷史高點下滑 55%。鏈上基本面轉弱與技術面惡化的交匯，已加劇了對網路原生資產的下行壓力。
Technical Breakdown Follows 13% Decline
The bear pennant—a consolidation between two converging lines after a sharp price decline—will resolve once ETH breaks below the lower trend line at approximately $2,060, according to Cointelegraph's report. This breakdown follows ETH's breach of an ascending trend line that had supported the price since early February. The pattern's measured move targets the $1,800 level if the breakdown confirms.
Critical Support Levels Signal Pivotal Moment
Crypto analyst Chain Mind posted on X that the current juncture is decisive, stating: "This is the crucial moment for ETH," and warning that failure to reclaim the broken support level would expose the asset to areas below $1,800. Separately, analyst Alex Marzell noted that a move below $2,050 would increase the probability of ETH reaching the $1,800 support zone.
Layer-2 Ecosystem Under Pressure
Ethereum's layer-2 networks have experienced steep TVL declines, with CryptoRank highlighting that Arbitrum has declined 63%, zkSync 64%, and Linea 98% from recent highs. CryptoRank stated in a Telegram note: "This reinforces the broader picture of capital fragmentation in Ethereum's rollup ecosystem and undermines the 'unified liquidity pool' effect that early L2 development models envisioned." The firm attributed the sharpest L2 corrections to "high liquidity sensitivity to incentive programs and short-term reward mechanics."
Industry Context
A large Ethereum whale opened a $100 million short position, according to Cointelegraph reporting, suggesting institutional participants are actively positioning for further downside. The Ethereum Foundation has faced additional scrutiny following recent high-profile departures, adding to bearish market sentiment.
已確認的跌破情境
若確認跌破 2,060 美元，將觸發看跌旗形的量測目標，朝向 1,800 美元移動。Cointelegraph 的分析指出，若關鍵支撐位無法守住，ETH 的下跌趨勢在短期內可能延伸至 1,750 美元。
