本周，比特币在承压加剧，原因是机构抛售加速，而地缘政治紧张局势又为全球市场增添了新的不确定性。根据分析平台 Swissblock 的数据，比特币的 Risk Index（风险指数）攀升至 100 分中的 33 分，这将市场推入该公司所称的高风险区域。现货 Spot Bitcoin ETFs（现货比特币 ETF）录得持续的资金外流，在过去一年里削弱了市场最强的机构支持来源之一。
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Weakness
Swissblock said Bitcoin moved from an accumulation phase in March and April into a distribution phase throughout May. The firm's Risk Index, which measures the balance between buying and selling pressure, turned bearish alongside increasing ETF outflows.
According to Swissblock, periods where the index favors sellers often reflect institutional positioning rather than retail-driven volatility.
ETF Demand No Longer Offsetting Selling Pressure
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows almost every trading day since May 7. The trend has lasted for more than two weeks, signaling sustained institutional selling pressure.
Over the same period, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $2 billion leave the market. Analysts say these outflows are adding supply pressure without enough buyer demand to absorb it.
Swissblock warned that if ETF demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin's Risk Index could move even higher in the coming weeks.
伊朗紧张局势再添一层压力
在有报道称出现了与伊朗军事目标相关的新一轮美国打击之后，市场情绪进一步走弱，尽管该地区仍在进行持续的外交讨论。
美国中央司令部 US Central Command 将这些行动描述为针对导弹基础设施和被怀疑布设海军水雷的船只的防御性行动。
地缘政治头条消息引发了包括比特币在内的风险资产再度波动。分析师指出，BTC 几乎在升级发生后立刻做出反应，延续了此前全球冲突事件中所见的模式。
最新的市场走势引发了人们对比特币“digital gold（数字黄金）”角色的再度讨论。尽管比特币承受了新一轮的抛售压力，但黄金市场吸引了更强的资金流入，因为投资者转向了传统的避险资产。近期黄金流入与 Bitcoin ETF（比特币 ETF）外流之间的背离，强化了这一对许多密切关注机构资金流向的交易者而言的格局。
