根据 Cointelegraph 于 5 月 26 日发布的市场分析，Ethereum 在日线图上形成了看跌旗形（bear pennant），这是一种技术性盘整形态，目标是跌至约 $1,800——相较当前水平下跌 14%——。看跌局面此前还伴随 ETH 从 2,400 美元以上的数月高点回落了 13%。以太坊的总锁仓量（TVL）已降至 1,160 亿美元，为 2025 年 4 月以来的最低点，较 2025 年 8 月 14 日创下的 2,580 亿美元历史高点下滑 55%。链上基本面走弱与技术面恶化的叠加，进一步加剧了对该网络原生资产的下行压力。
Technical Breakdown Follows 13% Decline
The bear pennant—a consolidation between two converging lines after a sharp price decline—will resolve once ETH breaks below the lower trend line at approximately $2,060, according to Cointelegraph's report. This breakdown follows ETH's breach of an ascending trend line that had supported the price since early February. The pattern's measured move targets the $1,800 level if the breakdown confirms.
Critical Support Levels Signal Pivotal Moment
Crypto analyst Chain Mind posted on X that the current juncture is decisive, stating: "This is the crucial moment for ETH," and warning that failure to reclaim the broken support level would expose the asset to areas below $1,800. Separately, analyst Alex Marzell noted that a move below $2,050 would increase the probability of ETH reaching the $1,800 support zone.
Layer-2 Ecosystem Under Pressure
Ethereum's layer-2 networks have experienced steep TVL declines, with CryptoRank highlighting that Arbitrum has declined 63%, zkSync 64%, and Linea 98% from recent highs. CryptoRank stated in a Telegram note: "This reinforces the broader picture of capital fragmentation in Ethereum's rollup ecosystem and undermines the 'unified liquidity pool' effect that early L2 development models envisioned." The firm attributed the sharpest L2 corrections to "high liquidity sensitivity to incentive programs and short-term reward mechanics."
Industry Context
A large Ethereum whale opened a $100 million short position, according to Cointelegraph reporting, suggesting institutional participants are actively positioning for further downside. The Ethereum Foundation has faced additional scrutiny following recent high-profile departures, adding to bearish market sentiment.
已确认的跌破情景
若确认跌破 2,060 美元，将触发看跌旗形的量度目标，指向 1,800 美元。Cointelegraph 的分析指出，如果关键支撑位无法守住，ETH 的下跌趋势在短期内很可能延伸至 1,750 美元。
