Bitcoin rose 1.6% over 24 hours to around $77,500 as crypto markets reacted to rising prediction-market odds for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement and fresh diplomatic activity in Doha. The move followed a sharp rise in Polymarket odds that a permanent U.S.-Iran deal could be reached this month, with traders raising the probability to 37%, up from roughly 14% on Friday. Prediction-market traders also placed the odds of a deal by early June at 46% and by the end of July at 72%, with the market attracting about $178 million in trading volume. According to a Nikkei report, the U.S. and Iran are discussing a plan that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz approximately 30 days after both sides reach a peace agreement. The report stated Iran would use the 30 days to clear mines from the waterway, after which ships from all countries would be able to move freely through the strait. Iran would stop collecting transit fees under the plan. The proposed framework includes extending the current ceasefire by 60 days, with talks on Iran's nuclear program taking place during that two-month pause. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to global markets as one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. A reopening would likely ease pressure on crude markets, which could reduce inflation concerns and support risk assets such as Bitcoin.
US-Iran Diplomatic Activity Drives Market Reaction
Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for talks involving the Strait of Hormuz, highly enriched uranium, and a possible extension of the current ceasefire. Pakistan and Qatar are serving as mediators in the negotiations. President Donald Trump said the framework agreement remains "subject to finalization." In a Truth Social post, he described the talks as moving well but said the outcome would be either a "Great Deal for all" or "no Deal at all."
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Recovery Zone
Bitcoin is trading near $77,400 after rebounding from last week's local low near $74,000. The recovery has brought BTC back into the $76,600 to $78,500 range, identified as a key short-term zone. A daily close above $79,188 to $80,000 is viewed as a stronger bullish signal. That area includes a CME gap near $79,188 and sits close to the level Bitcoin must reclaim to shift momentum back in favor of buyers. If BTC breaks above $80,000, the next resistance range sits around $84,000 to $86,500. A wider supply area remains near $88,000 to $90,300, where sellers may become more active. If Bitcoin fails to hold the current recovery zone, traders are watching $73,400 as the next major support. Below that level, the next support areas are near $71,400 and $65,100. A deeper decline could bring the $60,700 to $59,600 area back into focus.
Glassnode Market Pulse: Cautious Stabilization
Glassnode's latest market pulse showed Bitcoin falling from $79,000 to $74,000 before recovering toward $77,000. Price momentum declined by 21.7%, reflecting weaker short-term action after the recent correction. Spot and perpetual CVD readings improved during the week, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. Spot CVD rose 77.2%, while perpetual CVD increased 35.5%. At the same time, spot trading volume fell 10%, and futures open interest dropped 3.5%, showing lower speculative activity. Long-side funding payments rose 135.4%, indicating renewed demand for leveraged long exposure. Options data showed slightly higher demand for downside protection, while open interest remained broadly stable. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF netflows improved by 28.9%, showing reduced outflows, although ETF trading volume declined 22.9%. Network activity also cooled, with fewer active addresses and lower transfer volume.
Analyst View on Peace Deal Impact
Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could move higher if a Middle East peace deal is reached. He said lower oil prices and lower yields could support risk assets and help Bitcoin break above $80,000 again.
