Bitcoin rebounded on May 25 to above $77,000, while Brent crude slipped below $100 to around $98.83. U.S. President Trump on Sunday confirmed that there is a draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran, saying the deal has not yet been fully finalized and urging the public to stop adding unwarranted criticism about the situation; a White House official said the U.S. and Iran still need a few days to sign the agreement. An Axios source said the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for a 60-day ceasefire.
60-Day MOU Draft: Confirmed Terms and Outstanding Disputes
According to a U.S. official, the draft MOU lasting 60 days can be extended by mutual agreement. The draft framework includes: Iran clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring ships can pass freely, with no passage fees; the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, providing some sanctions exemptions, and allowing Iran to resume exporting oil freely. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghei confirmed that both sides are discussing a memorandum aimed at ending the war and that further talks will be held during the ceasefire period regarding the nuclear plan.
However, Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on May 24 that management of the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status, that Iran has not negotiated with the U.S. on the issue of its enriched uranium stockpiles, and that it “will never back down from its current position.”
Oil Price Reaction and Energy Market Recovery Timeline
Both Brent crude and WTI hit their lowest levels since May 7. ClearView Energy Partners said in its report on Sunday that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, evacuating oil tankers that were stranded, and restoring crude oil production may take “weeks or even months.” Repairing damaged facilities and restoring production to pre-war levels “may take several quarters or even years.” IEA data shows that as of mid-May, the conflict has resulted in about 14 million barrels per day of crude oil transport being blocked.
Bitcoin Market Reaction and Sentiment Indicators
Bitcoin had briefly fallen below $75,000 earlier due to the SEC delaying its decision on tokenized stock products, but then rebounded after news of the ceasefire agreement, rising to above $77,000 on May 25. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the New York Post that “there may be news published later that day,” though it was not yet certain; he confirmed that talks have made progress and that both sides are working to finalize the final agreement. Polymarket data shows the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a peace agreement by July 31 is 59%.
FAQ
What are the core exchange terms in the proposed 60-day U.S.-Iran MOU?
According to an Axios source, under the draft framework, Iran would be responsible for clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring free passage for ships; the U.S. would lift its blockade of Iranian ports and provide some sanctions exemptions, allowing Iran to resume exporting oil. Both sides will conduct further negotiations on the nuclear plan during the ceasefire period. As of the time of this report, the final text has not been released.
Does a sharp drop in oil prices mean the Strait of Hormuz can immediately return to normal?
Analysts generally say that recovery will take time. ClearView Energy Partners reported that mine-clearing and restoring production may take “weeks or even months,” and restoring production to pre-war levels may require “several quarters or even years.” The IEA has confirmed that as of mid-May, about 14 million barrels per day of crude oil transport has been blocked.
Are Trump’s “not fully finalized” and the White House’s “still a few days away” statements contradictory?
Both point to the fact that the agreement is still in the final negotiation stage. Trump’s wording was a response to public criticism, emphasizing that the terms are not yet finalized; the White House official’s “still a few days” indicates there is still a time gap before the formal signing, so the two statements are not contradictory.
