Macroeconomics

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos announced that the nation has entered an energy emergency state to address threats to energy supply from Middle East conflicts. Multiple countries globally that rely on imported energy have also implemented austerity measures, reflecting the fragility of energy supply chains and the impact of conflicts on international markets.

International Energy Agency Director Birol stated in Tokyo that in response to surging global energy prices, it will prepare to release additional oil reserves. Previously, Japan's Prime Minister requested preparations for a second emergency release. The IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil and warned that global energy security faces severe threats.

Deutsche Bank report analyzes the current state of the petrodollar system, pointing out that it faced pressure before the war. Factors such as U.S. energy independence, the trend of oil currency localization, and shaken trust in the Gulf region pose challenges to the system, resulting in increased Middle Eastern oil flows to Asia and more non-dollar transactions.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated in an interview that if oil prices reach $150 per barrel, it could trigger a global economic recession. He pointed out that the outcome of conflicts could lead to either a decline or sustained high oil prices, affecting the economic situation.

Data from the UK Office for National Statistics shows that the Consumer Price Index rose 3% year-over-year in February, with core inflation reaching 3.2%. The market expects inflation to remain elevated due to Middle East conflicts and rising energy prices, which will impact monetary policy. The pound weakened slightly against the dollar, with analysts predicting the Bank of England may maintain high interest rates to counter the "second-round inflation effects."

Gate News reported that on March 25, Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 Brent crude oil (one of the global crude oil price benchmarks) price forecast to $80 per barrel.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute points out that Bitcoin's return to the $70,000 level is due to easing tensions in the Middle East, which has led to a decline in crude oil prices and reduced geopolitical risks. Market concerns about inflation and supply disruptions have eased, with capital flowing toward risk assets. If oil prices remain stable, it could improve Bitcoin's performance; if they rise again, it could suppress Bitcoin's price.

Reuters/Ipsos latest poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to its lowest level, with only 36% approving of his job performance. Economic management and cost of living issues have significantly worsened public approval, with only 25% of respondents approving of Trump's handling of these issues.

Gate News reported that on March 25, Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command spokesman issued a statement stating that energy and oil prices will not return to past levels until Iran's armed forces ensure regional stability.

Military tensions between the United States and Iran are escalating, driving oil prices up to $104 per barrel and bringing inflationary pressures back to the fore. The probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has surged significantly, with U.S. stocks showing mixed performance, technology stocks under pressure, and energy stocks performing strongly. Bitcoin remains flat at $70,500, as markets reassess future funding costs and cash becomes the preferred choice for investors.

Gate News reported that on March 25, OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap stated at the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington that memory chip shortages are the primary bottleneck for current AI infrastructure expansion: "Now it's memory. In the past, it was power." Tech companies are consuming increasingly more memory chip production capacity, with large-scale purchases of Nvidia AI accelerators being the main cause. Memory shortages have spread from the AI industry to consumer electronics and automotive sectors.

Bitcoin is under pressure near $70,791 as U.S. 5-year Treasury yields rise to a 9-month high, accompanied by inflation concerns triggered by the Iran conflict. Market capital is tilting toward cash holdings, weakening demand for Bitcoin. Analysts predict it may retest the $66,000 support level. With rising probability of rate hikes, market speculative demand for Bitcoin is diminishing, and overall risk assets are also facing pressure.

Gate News reported that on March 25, gold prices rebounded as oil prices declined significantly and expectations of easing Middle East tensions provided support. Spot gold rose approximately 2.56% to $4,588 per ounce, while April-delivery gold futures surged more than 4%, reaching $4,597.7.

Bitcoin tests the $67,500 support level again, gold prices pull back significantly, and markets reduce risk assets due to concerns about Iran conflict and inflation impacts. U.S. Treasury yields rise, indicating investors shifting to cash amid economic uncertainty.

Bitcoin rose slightly on the short term to around $70,745. Tether plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of USDT reserves by the Big Four accounting firms for the first time. Ledger completed a $50 million equity sale with no IPO plans yet. The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with unstable market sentiment amid concerns about rising oil prices and the Middle East situation.

Gate News reports that on March 25, international crude oil futures prices experienced a sharp decline. Near-month WTI crude oil futures (U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil) fell 5.9%, closing at $86.86 per barrel; near-month Brent crude oil futures (European North Sea Brent crude oil) fell 6.6%, closing at $97.57 per barrel.

On March 25, Federal Reserve Governor Barr indicated that interest rates may need to remain stable to address inflation above the 2% target. He supported last week's decision to hold rates steady, stating that the Middle East situation and rising oil prices have increased economic uncertainty and heightened inflation risks.

BNY Mellon Chief Executive Robin Vince noted that the future adoption of cryptocurrency will depend on large traditional financial institutions, expressing opposition to claims that DeFi will replace banks. He emphasized that large banks' customer bases and infrastructure are key to driving tokenization, and called for clear regulations to promote digital asset adoption. This financial transformation is expected to take 5 to 15 years and will require collaborative efforts from all parties.

Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the private credit market faces redemption pressure and low transparency risks, similar to the 2007 CDO bubble. He points out that market institutions have tightened redemption policies and predicts that if this collapse occurs, it will have serious implications for the crypto market.

QCP Group points out that Trump's ultimatum to Iran failed to materialize, and the market stabilized briefly. Despite BTC breaking below 70,000, its resilience has strengthened. With U.S. national debt exceeding 3.9 trillion, stagflation concerns intensify, and central banks face policy dilemmas. Iran proposed settling transit fees in yuan, and the market should monitor shifts in BTC.