JPMorgan stated in a recent internal research note that Bitcoin's price trend in the second half of 2026 will depend primarily on Strategy's funding strategy and the progress of the Clarity Act. The document is not public, but its contents leaked to the press. JPMorgan's stance reflects a more cautious tone than in the past, amid ongoing tensions in crypto markets between innovation, regulatory needs, and traditional banking sector interests.
Strategy Faces Financial Pressure After 32 BTC Sale
Strategy, formerly Microstrategy, has accumulated more than 800,000 BTC over the years, following the strategy dictated by Michael Saylor. The company has turned its treasury into a proxy vehicle for Bitcoin exposure, buying even at prices close to recent highs. During the current bear market, MSTR stock collapsed from more than $450 to less than $130 in the last eleven months—a 72% crash, significantly greater than Bitcoin's 50% decline from the October highs.
Bitcoin's current price has fallen below Strategy's average purchase price. The company recently sold 32 BTC, approximately $2.5 million, for the first time since the previous bear market. According to JPMorgan, this transaction is limited in size compared to total reserves, but it raises questions about the company's future financial obligations. Strategy must meet about $1.7 billion per year in dividends on preferred stock, and current cash reserves in dollars would cover only slightly more than six months of these payments.
JPMorgan analysts pointed out that investors might become concerned in the event of further BTC sales, introducing a new element of risk. Strategy has historically financed BTC purchases through equity and debt. A weaker crypto market or high funding costs could force the company into more substantial liquidations, with potential negative impacts on Bitcoin's price.
Clarity Act Approval Faces Senate Obstacles
The Clarity Act represents an attempt to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The bill passed the House in 2025, but this year it is struggling to be approved by the Senate. JPMorgan had previously forecast final approval by mid-2026, considering it a potential positive catalyst for the market in the second half of the year, as it would provide regulatory clarity and end "regulation by enforcement," favoring institutional adoption.
Final approval by June 30 now appears to have faded. According to bettors on Polymarket, there is now only just over a 50% chance that the bill could be approved by the end of the year. JPMorgan's latest reports indicate a change in outlook, as the useful legislative window for approval is narrowing due to the calendar ahead of the November midterm elections. With only a few legislative weeks available before the summer recess and the election campaign, the path to approval requires 60 votes in the Senate, reconciliation with the House version, and the presidential signature.
The main sticking point concerns the native yields of stablecoins, which many traditional banks, including JPMorgan, oppose. JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has spoken out clearly and openly against some aspects of the Clarity Act. His statements have sparked a heated debate between traditional banks and the crypto industry.
JPMorgan Identifies Dual Price Factors for Bitcoin
Bitcoin's price trend appears to be influenced by these two specific factors. Hypothetical large sales of BTC by Strategy could increase selling pressure, while the possible approval of the Clarity Act could unlock significant institutional flows, promote the tokenization of real-world assets, and reduce legal uncertainty.
JPMorgan's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's future does not depend only on halvings, ETFs, or technological adoption, but also on corporate funding dynamics and political decisions in Washington. The increase in BTC selling pressure on exchanges that had been going on for about a month, and that caused the recent crash, has stopped. The situation appears to have normalized again in the short term.
FAQ
What did JPMorgan say about Bitcoin's price in the second half of 2026?
JPMorgan stated in an internal research note that Bitcoin's price trend in the second half of 2026 will depend primarily on Strategy's funding strategy and the progress of the Clarity Act. The document leaked to the press and reflects a more cautious tone than JPMorgan's past positions.
Why did Strategy sell 32 BTC for the first time since the previous bear market?
Strategy sold 32 BTC, approximately $2.5 million, as Bitcoin's current price fell below the company's average purchase price. JPMorgan noted that Strategy must meet about $1.7 billion per year in dividends on preferred stock, and current cash reserves in dollars would cover only slightly more than six months of these payments, raising questions about future financial obligations.
What is preventing the Clarity Act from being approved by the Senate?
The Clarity Act passed the House in 2025 but is struggling in the Senate. The path to approval requires 60 votes in the Senate, reconciliation with the House version, and the presidential signature. The main sticking point concerns the native yields of stablecoins, which many traditional banks, including JPMorgan, oppose. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has spoken out against some aspects of the bill.
