Republican Rep. Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday, legislation aimed at preventing lawmakers and their families from profiting from bets on political and policy outcomes in prediction markets. The bill would ban lawmakers as well as their spouses and dependents from placing bets on prediction markets that involve specific government actions, policies, or political outcomes. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity over the past year, fueling concerns that traders could profit from nonpublic information.
Bill Imposes Fines and Builds on Existing Trading Restrictions
The five-page House bill would fine lawmakers who violate its rules close to $2,000 or 10 percent of the value of the transaction, whichever is more, as well as the net gain realized from the bet. The new legislative measure would build on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which aims to block lawmakers and their families from buying publicly traded stocks. "The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen," Steil said in a statement. "This legislation is critical to restoring the public's trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome."
Polymarket User Earned $400,000 on Maduro Bet Leading to Arrest
Concerns about insider trading in prediction markets intensified earlier this year when an anonymous Polymarket user earned more than $400,000 by wagering that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power before the end of the month. Prosecutors have since arrested active-duty U.S. Army Soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who allegedly used confidential information to place that bet.
Senate Banned Itself from Prediction Market Trading Last Month
Last month, the Senate moved to bar itself from trading on prediction markets in an effort to block insider trading. Meanwhile, both Kalshi and Polymarket have said they have taken steps to curb insider trading. Other bills in the House have also been introduced to block lawmakers from participating in prediction markets.
FAQ
What did Rep. Steil introduce on Thursday?
Republican Rep. Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday, legislation aimed at preventing lawmakers and their families from profiting from bets on political and policy outcomes in prediction markets.
What fines does the bill impose on lawmakers who violate its rules?
The five-page House bill would fine lawmakers who violate its rules close to $2,000 or 10 percent of the value of the transaction, whichever is more, as well as the net gain realized from the bet.
Why did concerns about insider trading in prediction markets intensify earlier this year?
Concerns intensified earlier this year when an anonymous Polymarket user earned more than $400,000 by wagering that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power before the end of the month. Prosecutors have since arrested active-duty U.S. Army Soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who allegedly used confidential information to place that bet.
