Coinfomania reported on June 1 that there is news indicating SpaceX is considering an IPO with a valuation of nearly $2 trillion and would adopt an ultra-short insider lock-up period, possibly as short as 30 to 90 days, far below the industry standard of 180 days. The fundamentals cited by the report include that Starlink has more than 5 million active users across over 80 countries as of early 2026.
Confirmed Starlink Metrics and Starship Milestones
The basic data confirmed by Coinfomania are as follows: Starlink has more than 5 million active users across more than 80 countries, with estimated annual recurring revenue between $12 billion and $15 billion and year-over-year growth of about 40%; SpaceX has already sent more than 6,500 satellites into near-Earth orbit.
A Morgan Stanley analyst’s valuation model for Starlink shows its value ranging from $800 billion to $1.2 trillion, based on assumptions about penetration rates into untapped markets, government contract demand, and partnerships with aviation stakeholders. Starship completed its first successful orbital flight and landing by the end of 2025, and subsequent cargo missions have been carried out; NASA’s Artemis program has signed contracts worth more than $4 billion for Starship-derived lunar landers.
Starship’s target cost to reach orbit is under $100 per kilogram, which is significantly lower than the roughly $2,700 per kilogram cost of the Falcon 9.
The Ultra-Short Lock-Up Design Described in the Report and SEC Regulatory Scrutiny
The report states that SpaceX is considering adopting the shortest 30-day insider lock-up period. One of the purposes is to provide faster liquidity to employees and early investors who hold long-term book equity; in recent years, SpaceX has allowed employees to sell some shares through multiple tender offers, with records of orderly selling already in place.
On SEC compliance, the report notes that the SEC does not technically mandate lock-up periods, but a 30-day lock-up for a $2 trillion IPO will inevitably trigger regulatory scrutiny. The focus is whether an ultra-short lock-up period creates asymmetric risks for retail investors before the market has fully priced the offering. The report says SpaceX’s legal team is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to design a layered lock-up structure, setting different lock-up windows for different categories of insiders, but specific details have not yet been disclosed.
FAQ
What main confirmed business supports underpin SpaceX’s $2 trillion valuation?
According to Coinfomania’s report, the two key supports come from Starlink (estimated annual recurring revenue of $12–$15 billion, about 40% year-over-year growth, and Morgan Stanley model valuation of $800 billion to $1.2 trillion) and Starship (its first successful orbital flight has been completed, NASA has signed deals worth more than $4 billion, and the target cost to reach orbit is under $100 per kilogram). SpaceX’s $2 trillion valuation and IPO plan have not been officially confirmed.
Why does the report say SpaceX’s lock-up period is shortened to 30 days?
According to Coinfomania’s report, the reasons include: providing faster liquidity to employees and early investment institutions holding long-term, low-liquidity book equity; and SpaceX’s strong bargaining power in valuation negotiations (the report cites that both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are interested in obtaining proxy advisory roles). The report also confirms that SpaceX has established a track record of orderly selling through multiple tender offers.
Will the SEC necessarily oppose SpaceX’s ultra-short lock-up design?
According to Coinfomania’s report, the SEC does not technically mandate lock-up periods, but may review whether an ultra-short lock-up period creates asymmetric risks for retail investors and whether the combination of a dual-class equity structure and a short lock-up period requires additional information disclosure. The report says SpaceX is designing a layered lock-up structure to meet regulatory requirements, but the specific方案 has not been disclosed yet, and SpaceX has not made an official confirmation on this either.
