New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu initiated coverage of SpaceX on Wednesday with a $165 price target and an Overweight rating, days before the rocket company's initial public offering. The target implies 22% upside from the $135-per-share IPO price set earlier this month and values the post-Cursor-acquisition equity at roughly $2.3 trillion. SpaceX is on track to complete the largest IPO in history on Friday, June 12, under the Nasdaq ticker SPCX, targeting a $1.77 trillion valuation and a record $75 billion cash raise.
The IPO valuation already incorporates SpaceX's planned $60 billion acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor, which the company has the right to complete later this year. The deal is reported to be multiple times oversubscribed.
Ferragu Projects $195 Billion Revenue by 2030
Ferragu's price target rests on a sum-of-the-parts analysis projecting $195 billion in revenue and $65 billion in EBIT by 2030. The firm assigns $400 billion to the Starlink satellite-internet business, $250 billion to direct-to-cell connectivity, and $100 billion to third-party launch services. The standout figure is a $575 billion standalone valuation for xAI — a 60% premium over comparable AI pure-plays such as OpenAI and Anthropic — because SpaceX owns the physical stack of rockets, satellites, and orbital infrastructure. Ferragu noted that if SpaceX's total addressable market hits the high end of his estimates, the stock could be worth as much as $330 per share.
Eisman and Chanos Criticize IPO Valuation
Investor Steve Eisman said Monday he is not a fan of the IPO, warning that the rocket company's pivot into artificial intelligence has transformed it into an extraordinarily capital-intensive business with few competitive advantages. In fiscal year 2023, capital expenditure stood at 42% of revenue when SpaceX was primarily focused on its Starlink satellite internet business. By the first quarter of this year, that figure had ballooned to 215% of revenue as the company ramped up spending on AI infrastructure. "It's not even space that's so hard. It's the AI," Eisman said.
Veteran short seller Jim Chanos slammed SpaceX's upcoming IPO valuation as fueled by hopes and dreams rather than financial fundamentals, saying that investor excitement over Elon Musk and artificial intelligence is driving the $135-per-share pricing far beyond what the business can realistically justify, as reported by Bloomberg. "This is really a hopes-and-dreams IPO," Chanos said.
SpaceX Merges AI Strategy with Orbital Infrastructure
SpaceX merged with Musk's AI startup and Grok parent xAI earlier this year. Elon Musk has proposed developing orbital data centers powered by Starlink satellites and future Starship missions, stating that the next frontier of AI will not be on Earth, but in space. Going public will give employees and early investors liquidity while exposing the company to public-market scrutiny over execution risks, regulatory hurdles, and heavy capital spending.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SPACZZX was extremely bullish at the time of writing.
FAQ
What is SpaceX's IPO price and debut date?
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share and is scheduled to debut on Friday, June 12, under the Nasdaq ticker SPCX. The offering targets a $1.77 trillion valuation and a record $75 billion cash raise.
Why do analysts disagree on SpaceX's IPO valuation?
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu set a $165 price target based on projected revenue of $195 billion and EBIT of $65 billion by 2030, assigning high value to the xAI business. In contrast, Steve Eisman and Jim Chanos criticized the valuation, citing capital expenditure that reached 215% of revenue in the first quarter of this year and a reliance on AI hype rather than financial fundamentals.
