According to prediction market Predict.fun, Spain drew 0-0 with World Cup newcomer Cape Verde in the early morning of June 16, marking the tournament's biggest upset to date. Spain held a 92% win probability pre-match, while Cape Verde carried only a 2% chance of victory.
Trader Fishalive profited approximately $9 million by predicting Spain would fail to win, placing a $4.5 million bet just 8 minutes before the match began. Meanwhile, trader avenger suffered a $1.6 million loss on a single position after going all-in on a Spain victory, despite accumulating $34,000 in profits across over 1,000 prior predictions.