U.S. Bank Lowers Forecasts for U.S.-Europe Growth, Raises Inflation Expectations; Middle East Impact Is Uneven

Gate News message: On April 12, the U.S. bank released a research report on Friday, making revised forecasts on the impact of Middle East geopolitical shocks on the global economy. In the U.S., the bank cut its 2026 growth forecast by 50 basis points to 2.3%, with direct war impacts accounting for about three quarters of the downward revision. The upward revision to overall inflation was 70 basis points; it expects that by the end of 2026, core PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure the Federal Reserve closely watches) will be 30 basis points higher than the prior forecast, reaching 3.1%. For the euro zone, the bank lowered its growth forecast by 60 basis points and raised its inflation forecast by 160 basis points to 3.3%, with core inflation at 2.3%. The report noted that the Middle East shock has a wide reach, but its effects are uneven.

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