U.S. Bond Investors Predict Fed Chair Waltz to Hike Rates in December, Markets Price in 35% Probability

According to Bloomberg, on May 25, U.S. bond investors predict Federal Reserve Chair Waltz will prioritize the central bank's inflation-fighting credibility over President Trump's pressure for lower rates, with markets already pricing in a December rate hike through derivative instruments.

Meanwhile, Polymarket data shows the probability of a Fed rate hike this year stands at only 35%.