西班牙消費者事務部於週二在西班牙《官方國家公報》發布針對 Polymarket 與 Kalshi 的制裁程序，將兩個平台均歸類為未獲牌照的博彩營運商。該部同時命令全國各地的網際網路服務提供商封鎖兩個網站的存取，封鎖將視營運商而在 7 至 10 天內生效。制裁程序本身預計需時三到四個月，才會作出最終裁決。西班牙加入了一份不斷增加的國家名單，將預測市場視為博彩，不論其是否基於區塊鏈或符合監管架構。
這項監管行動反映了符合西班牙法律所特別關注的消費者保護疑慮。預測市場允許使用者就未來不確定的結果下注資金，這在西班牙法規下屬於博彩。西班牙獲許可的博彩營運商必須實施年齡驗證系統、針對未成年人的存取控制、針對問題賭徒的自我排除機制，以及持續的使用者監測。博彩監管局的總管科（Directorate General for Gambling Regulation）認定 Polymarket 與 Kalshi 兩者完全缺乏這些防護措施。
Political Timing and Market Sensitivity
Polymarket recently opened a market on the possible early end of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's term. Kalshi currently offers bets on which national leader will leave office in 2026, with Sánchez listed at 29% probability. Both markets generated attention on Spanish social media, attracting regulatory scrutiny that may have accelerated the ministry's action.
Global Regulatory Pattern
Spain is not acting in isolation. Brazil blocked both platforms earlier this year as part of a broader crackdown on prediction markets operating without gambling compliance. Indonesia blocked Polymarket last week after bets on President Prabowo's resignation spread on local social media. The pattern is consistent across jurisdictions: governments classify event-contract betting as gambling, then act when politically sensitive markets emerge on the platforms.
| Country | Action | Trigger |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Brazil | Block | Gambling compliance |
| Indonesia | Block | Presidential resignation bets |
| Spain | Block + Sanctions | Unlicensed operation + political markets |
Jurisdictional Distinctions and Regulatory Framework
Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation in the United States, a licensed, compliant framework. Polymarket is blockchain-based and decentralized. In Spain, that distinction is irrelevant—neither platform holds a Spanish gambling license, so both face identical treatment. Technical architecture does not override local gambling classification. A decentralized prediction market without local licensing faces the same blocking order as a traditional betting platform.
挑戰與執行
兩個平台都可以在制裁程序中對該程序提出挑戰。然而，該部針對已知的海外地址所進行的直接通知嘗試已經失敗，顯示平台本身的配合度可能有限。
