An investigation found that 7 associated accounts on a certain prediction market platform made precise bets against U.S. airstrikes over the past two years, accumulating profits of approximately $1 million, suspected of involving insider trading.

On March 20, Polymarket launched a market for "NCAA March Madness Perfect Prediction," which currently has no bets. Previously, Kalshi announced the launch of a "Perfect Prediction Challenge," encouraging users to predict the outcomes of "NCAA" events, with winners receiving a $1 billion prize.

March 20, prediction markets show two high-win-rate addresses invested $9,700 in the "Will the US military invade Iran" event, selecting "No." The current probability of "No" for this event is 40%. Trump stated during a meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister that he will not dispatch US troops, while the Defense Secretary reiterated US military objectives. Trader behavior indicates short-term arbitrage rather than bets on the actual occurrence of the event.

Gate News: On March 19, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision (a policy decision by the central bank on whether to adjust the benchmark rate) and meeting minutes at 20:00 Beijing time tonight, while the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 21:15. Affected by the Middle East conflict, both central banks' monetary policies face uncertainty. The market is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in this meeting, but bets on future rate hikes continue to increase.

美國2月PPI年率為3.4%，高於預期的2.9%，創2022年以來新高，分析師指出此數據未受近期地緣政治事件影響，導致交易員下調對美聯儲2026年降息的押注。

Visa Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell stated that AI-powered intelligent networks represent a major opportunity for the payments industry, with AI agents expected to handle 15-25% of U.S. e-commerce transactions by 2030. AI will enhance payment success rates, promote micro-transactions, and drive digitalization of B2B payments, while Visa has launched the "Trusted Agent Protocol" to strengthen security. Intensifying competition is shifting market focus toward underlying infrastructure and technology standard-setting.

US Congressional Democrats introduced the "BETS OFF Act" legislation aimed at restricting predictive betting on wars and national security events to prevent speculation using sensitive information. The bill stems from unusual betting incidents, with Senators Murphy and Representatives Casar emphasizing the ethical controversies and systemic loopholes of such activities. If the legislation advances, it will impact blockchain-based event trading models.

Gate News report: On March 17, U.S. Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar introduced a new bill called the BETS OFF Act, which aims to prohibit government officials from participating in prediction market bets while in possession of insider information. The bill specifically targets suspected insider trading activities in events related to U.S. operations in Venezuela, Iran, and other locations, aiming to restrict officials from profiting through sensitive policy and military information.

On Polymarket's "European Champions League Winner" prediction market, an account heavily bet $2.3 million, predicting Atalanta won't win the championship, with total bets reaching $3.1 million. The event contract trading volume has exceeded $287 million.

March 16 News: Prediction market Polymarket shows that bets on "US military will not enter Iran before April" have surged significantly, with someone investing $83,600 successfully raising the probability to 73%. Trump plans to establish an international coalition to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz, however Gulf states have denied providing military operation support. Despite Iran's attacks on Israel and US military bases, the US response remains focused on maintaining freedom of navigation in the strait and other aspects.