Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), and Planet Labs (PL) rose in overnight trading after Elon Musk endorsed an analysis by Rob Maurer, managing partner at First Principles Group, suggesting that SpaceX's Starship could reduce satellite bandwidth deployment costs to $0.30 per Mbps, down 95% from Falcon 9 levels. ASTS rose 1%, LUNR gained 2%, and PL inched 0.2% higher overnight. Maurer's analysis, posted on X, argued that investors are overlooking the cost of putting bandwidth into orbit as SpaceX's most important metric. The thesis has drawn attention to space companies that already rely on Falcon 9 for satellite launches and could eventually access cheaper orbital deployment if Starship delivers on its cost targets.
Maurer Analysis Projects 95% Cost Reduction With Starship
Rob Maurer said on X that Falcon 9 reduced bandwidth deployment costs 10x to $6.55 per Mbps, helping make Starlink viable. Starship could push that figure down to just $0.30 per Mbps. "A business that is doubling users annually with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin is about to cut their biggest cost by 95%," Maurer said. "It really seems like people don't understand the implications of this." Musk endorsed the analysis, calling it "Interesting."
Maurer's calculations assume that a reusable Falcon 9 launch carries 17 tonnes at around $1,000 per kilogram, while Starship targets 100 tonnes at less than $185 per kilogram. The result: $17 million spent deploying 2,600 Gbps of bandwidth via Falcon 9 versus $18.5 million deploying 61,000 Gbps via Starship.
Maurer also estimates that future Starlink V3 satellites could deliver 4x more bandwidth per kilogram than current V2 Mini satellites. Combined with Starship's launch economics, that could drive a 20x improvement in deployment efficiency. "Yeah, I really don't think people are getting this. Starlink is the internet now," Maurer said.
ASTS, LUNR, and PL Operate Existing Falcon 9 Contracts
AST SpaceMobile has used Falcon 9 to deploy its BlueBird direct-to-cell satellites and is scheduled to launch another batch of satellites later this month. Planet Labs operates under a multi-year rideshare agreement with SpaceX and has launched hundreds of SuperDove satellites aboard Falcon 9 missions. Intuitive Machines has relied on Falcon 9 for its IM-1 and IM-2 lunar missions and plans to use the rocket for future Moon missions as well.
Starlink Generated $11.4 Billion Revenue Last Year
Starlink reportedly generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year and accounted for 61% of SpaceX's total sales. The satellite internet business produced $7.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA, translating into a 63% margin and making it SpaceX's primary cash cow.
ARK Invest and Mach33 expect SpaceX to hit an enterprise value of $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a bull-case valuation of $3.1 trillion. The firms said that Starlink could eventually generate $300 billion in annual revenue and capture 15% of global communications spending.
Retail Sentiment Remains Mixed Across Space Stocks
On Stocktwits, sentiment around SpaceX and Planet Labs remained 'extremely bullish' amid 'extremely high' message volume, while AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines drew more cautious sentiment, with both stocks rated 'bearish' on 'low' message volume.
Over the past year, PL has surged 450%, while ASTS has gained 145% and LUNR has advanced 137%.
FAQ
What did Rob Maurer say about Starship's cost impact on SpaceX?
Rob Maurer, managing partner at First Principles Group, said that Starship could reduce satellite bandwidth deployment costs to $0.30 per Mbps, down 95% from Falcon 9's $6.55 per Mbps. Elon Musk endorsed the analysis on X.
How much revenue did Starlink generate last year?
Starlink reportedly generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, accounting for 61% of SpaceX's total sales. The business produced $7.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA with a 63% margin.
Which space stocks rose in overnight trading after Musk's endorsement?
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rose 1%, Intuitive Machines (LUNR) gained 2%, and Planet Labs (PL) inched 0.2% higher in overnight trading following Musk's endorsement of the Starship cost analysis.
