Open-Source AI Models Narrow Capability Gap to Frontier Competitors From 12 Months to 4 Months

According to analyst Miles Deutscher citing Epoch AI data, the capability gap between open-source AI models and closed-source frontier large models has narrowed from 12 months two years ago to approximately 4 months as of June 21. Open-source models have advanced from Llama 2-70B to GLM-5.2 and Kimi K2.6, while closed-source frontiers reach GPT-5.5 Pro level. Deutscher projects that within 6 months, open-source AI at Claude Fable level could be available for free public download.
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