Strait of Hormuz Blockade Recovery Faces Long-Term Delay as Insurance Costs Surge, Qatar Economy Forecast to Shrink 9%

According to The New York Times, on June 4, full recovery of the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping operations will require considerable time even if the U.S. and Iran reach a peace agreement, as security risks and war insurance costs have surged significantly, preventing global energy trade from returning to pre-conflict levels in the near term.

Meanwhile, major oil-producing nations including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela are increasing crude output, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues releasing inventory. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are diverting transport via overland pipelines to reduce dependence on the Strait. However, the International Monetary Fund projects Qatar's economy may contract approximately 9% this year due to reduced liquefied natural gas exports, and broader Gulf economic growth forecasts have been substantially downgraded.