U.S. Users Drove $11-34 Billion in Offshore Prediction Market Bets, Crane Zeng Report Claims

According to a research report published Thursday by Crane Zeng, a boutique consulting firm, U.S. users have been accessing offshore prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Myriad Markets despite geographic restrictions, with transactions totaling between $11 billion and $34 billion. Polymarket alone accounted for $11-27 billion of that activity, the report said, citing data from Dune Analytics.

Offshore prediction market platforms' market share has declined significantly, falling from 84% of total volume in 2024 to 61% in 2025, as CFTC-regulated U.S. venues gained traction. Kalshi and other domestic platforms processed $74 billion in the measured 12-month period, with offshore platforms accounting for the remaining 54% of combined volume.