Cryptocurrency liquidity provider Wintermute, with annual trading volume of $3.5 trillion, announced on June 1 that it will expand institutional trading into the prediction market space, offering a “bilateral market covering event contracts” on leading trading venues, but it did not specify the exact platform. Wintermute OTC head Jake Ostrovskis confirmed that prediction markets have “demand characteristics” for major asset classes.
Wintermute Confirms Its Market Entry Positioning and Business Scope
In its statement, Wintermute confirmed that prediction markets are shifting from “niche prediction tools” to a broader venue for trading event risk, and the company will continue to issue two-way quotes for buying and selling event contracts.
Wintermute confirmed that this move overlaps with its existing crypto infrastructure, as the company already manages spot, derivatives, DeFi, and OTC (over-the-counter) crypto markets. Wintermute confirmed that ongoing two-way market making helps narrow spreads, supports larger trading sizes, and improves the reliability of implied probabilities in the market; however, the company did not disclose in the announcement which specific prediction market platforms it will make markets on.
DeFiRate Confirms the Prediction Market Scale and Kalshi Market Share Data
According to DeFiRate data, Kalshi (regulated by the CFTC) and Polymarket—two leading prediction markets—have combined weekly nominal trading volume of about $5.8 billion, with nearly 400,000 active markets and 42.7 million weekly trades. Kalshi holds the largest market share with 70% of trading volume. CoinTelegraph reported confirmation that political and sports betting dominate on both platforms.
FAQ
Which prediction market platforms will Wintermute make markets on?
According to Wintermute’s confirmation statement, the company will provide two-way quote market making for event contracts on “leading trading venues,” but it did not specify which platforms. CoinTelegraph confirmed that Wintermute did not name specific partner platforms in the announcement.
Why does Wintermute think prediction markets currently need institutional liquidity?
According to Ostrovskis’s confirmation as head of OTC, prediction markets already have demand characteristics for major asset classes, but their liquidity characteristics still resemble those of early-stage asset classes. Ostrovskis confirmed that continuous two-way liquidity is a necessary condition for these markets to serve as reliable real-time sources of probability estimates.
What is the scale of Wintermute’s existing business and market coverage?
Wintermute confirmed that the company has annual trading volume of $3.5 trillion and operates across spot, derivatives, DeFi, and OTC crypto markets. Its entry into prediction markets is a confirmation of the expansion direction for its institutional trading business.
